Matteo Berrettini is set to face Adrian Mannarino in the first round of the BNP Paribas Open, taking place on Thursday, March 5, 2026, at Indian Wells Tennis Garden in Palm Springs, California. This ATP Masters 1000 event is played on outdoor hard courts and offers a prize pool of $9,415,725. Fans can watch the match live on the Tennis Channel in the USA, Sky Sports in the UK, and TSN, TVA Sports, DAZN, and WTA TV in Canada.
Examining the Players’ Season Leads into Indian Wells
Berrettini has had a mixed start to the 2026 tennis calendar, missing the Australian swing and opening his year with a second-round finish in Buenos Aires followed by a quarterfinal appearance in Rio de Janeiro. At the Rio Open, he secured a win against Dusan Lajovic but lost a hard-fought three-set match to Ignacio Buse. Recently, the 29-year-old Italian competed in the Chile Open but fell in the first round to Emilio Nava in straight sets, 6-3, 6-4. This tournament marks his seventh appearance at Indian Wells.
In contrast, 37-year-old Adrian Mannarino has shown resilience this season. After early exits in Auckland and Melbourne, the Frenchman made a strong impression by reaching the final in Montpellier, where he was defeated by Felix Auger-Aliassime in straight sets. Mannarino arrives at Indian Wells following a first-round loss to Sho Shimabukuro in Acapulco, where the Japanese player prevailed 6-3, 6-4. This will be Mannarino’s 13th participation in the Indian Wells event.
Head-to-Head Record Between Berrettini and Mannarino
Adrian Mannarino currently leads their encounters 2-0, including a recent victory over Berrettini at the 2025 Shanghai Masters. These previous results indicate a challenging matchup for the Italian as he hopes to overturn the trend.
Match Predictions and Tactical Insights
Berrettini has not reached a final since 2024 despite making four that year, signaling a need to regain form and capitalize on the opportunity presented at Indian Wells. Known for his powerful serve and comprehensive playing style, Berrettini will look to assert control throughout the match.
Mannarino, known for his deft groundstrokes, backhand slices, and court anticipation, poses a tricky challenge with his ability to disrupt opponents’ rhythm. Given his successful run to the Montpellier final earlier in the season, he carries momentum and experience.
Although Mannarino holds the psychological edge due to their head-to-head record and recent form, Berrettini’s match fitness and aggressive approach could allow him to prevail in a tightly contested three-set encounter.
Prediction: Berrettini is favored to win in three sets.
Additional Betting Pointers for the Berrettini vs Mannarino Match
Experts suggest the match is likely to extend beyond 20 games, indicating a competitive battle on court. Furthermore, Berrettini’s strong serving could help him rack up more than 10 aces during the contest, leveraging his potent weapon to gain key points.
