Tarik Skubal and the Detroit Tigers failed to reach an agreement on Skubal’s 2026 salary, sparking widespread reactions throughout Major League Baseball. Skubal is seeking $32 million, while the Tigers offered $19 million, creating a $13 million gap—the largest ever in salary arbitration history—setting the stage for a highly anticipated hearing on February 4 in Arizona.
How the Arbitration Hearing Might Affect Skubal’s Standing with the Tigers
Arbitration hearings can strain the relationship between players and teams, a fact well-known in baseball circles. Milwaukee Brewers’ pitchers Josh Hader and Corbin Burnes experienced such tensions after going through arbitration with their team in recent years, with both expressing frustration afterward.
“There’s no denying that the relationship is definitely hurt,”
Burnes said.
“There’s really no way of getting around that. Obviously, we’re professionals, and we’re going to go out there and do our job. Keep doing what I can every fifth day that I go out there. But some of the things that are said, for instance, basically putting me at the forefront of why we didn’t make the postseason last year – that’s something that probably doesn’t need to be said.”
—Corbin Burnes, Pitcher
Neither hearing directly caused those players to leave Milwaukee, but both were ultimately traded before entering free agency, marking the start of their departures. Similar consequences could unfold for Skubal with Detroit. The Tigers have previously engaged in contract extension discussions, reportedly offering four years for just under $80 million. However, given Detroit’s small-market status, the team is unlikely to match the record-setting salary Skubal is pursuing, making many believe that 2026 could be Skubal’s final season with the franchise.
Prospects for Skubal’s Role with Detroit in the Near Term
Throughout the offseason, rumors of a potential trade involving Skubal have circulated, but the Tigers have remained tight-lipped while considering offers. A trade seems unlikely at this point. Should the arbitration decide in favor of the Tigers’ $19 million offer, Skubal would represent significant value for the club. Conversely, if he wins the $32 million figure, that would better reflect his true market value. Still, trading Skubal after such a determination—particularly in the last year of his contract—could be seen as a public relations nightmare for Detroit.
Currently, the prevailing expectation is that Skubal will start Opening Day for the Tigers. If the team falls out of contention by the trade deadline, dealing him then becomes a viable option. While Detroit wouldn’t receive a transformative return, trading Skubal at that point would net more value than allowing him to reach free agency and signing him to a qualifying offer.
The Tigers will face a difficult strategic choice if they remain competitive late into the season: whether to keep Skubal through the final stretch or move him to strengthen the roster. That decision will be closely monitored by rival MLB executives, who see parallels to the Brewers’ 2022 decision to trade Hader, after which Milwaukee faltered and missed the playoffs.
Another significant factor is how the arbitration outcome may influence Detroit’s offseason moves. If Skubal wins the hearing, leading to a higher salary obligation, it may reduce the team’s willingness to pursue an elite starting pitcher like Lucas Giolito, with whom the Tigers have been linked. Such a financial constraint could limit Detroit’s upgrade opportunities this offseason.
Both Skubal and the Tigers anticipate clarity on his 2026 salary in the near future, which will shape the team’s approach to free agency and trade discussions. Most indications suggest that a Skubal trade is not imminent.
