The New York Yankees‘ payroll for 2026 took a significant hit due to Cody Bellinger‘s contract, which has driven his luxury tax figure up to $48.55 million. This sharp rise stems primarily from the opt-outs and signing bonuses the Yankees offered to persuade Bellinger to agree to a five-year deal, departing from his original seven-year demands. Despite the hefty $162.5 million agreement, with $85 million allocated in the first two seasons alone, the contract may still hold advantages for the team depending on Bellinger’s performance.
Potential Benefits of Bellinger’s Opt-Out Clauses for the Yankees
Bellinger’s contract includes two opt-out options, the first occurring after the 2027 season. Given that financial gain motivates the outfielder, these opt-outs provide him the flexibility to pursue a more lucrative deal should his performance excel, while also securing long-term stability he has sought for years. As analyzed by Chris Kirschner, this contract structure might actually work in New York’s favor:
Bellinger signed a five-year, $162.5 million contract with the Yankees. They will pay him $85 million over the first two seasons, after which he can exercise one of his two opt-outs. At that point, Bellinger would have $77.5 million remaining over three years. Unless he declines dramatically or is injured, there is a good chance he exercises his opt-out and tries to beat a three-year, $77.5 million deal on the open market.
?Chris Kirschner, Columnist for The Athletic
Bellinger’s Performance and What It Means for the Yankees
After struggling in 2022, including being non-tendered by the Los Angeles Dodgers despite his 2019 National League MVP title, Bellinger has shown signs of resurgence. His 2023 season with the Chicago Cubs restored some of his superstar status, although in 2024 his 2.1 fWAR reflects more of an average starting player’s contribution. For comparison, Ryan McMahon delivered a similar 1.9 fWAR split between Colorado and New York the previous year.
The Cubs’ decision to part ways with Bellinger stemmed from their reluctance to pay $25 million for what they viewed as a risk of average outcomes. This created an opportunity for the Yankees, who acquired him in the hope he could return to top form. If Bellinger can string together two outstanding seasons, he could complement Aaron Judge effectively and help the Yankees contend for championships.
Risks in Bellinger’s Profile as He Ages
Despite his talents, Bellinger’s metrics show concerning trends including limited bat speed, weak exit velocities, and alarmingly low hard-hit ball rates. These issues may worsen with age, casting doubts on his long-term effectiveness. A key advantage for the Yankees lies in the contract’s opt-out after the 2027 season; if Bellinger believes he can earn more than $77.5 million over the three subsequent years, it’s likely he will leave. This scenario spares New York from committing to Bellinger into his early 30s, when declines tend to accelerate, and frees cap space to invest in younger talent during free agency.
Implications for the Yankees’ Championship Hopes
While there is a real possibility that the contract could backfire if Bellinger underperforms or suffers injuries, the odds currently favor him opting out. If that happens, the Yankees will have essentially achieved their goal — securing Bellinger’s prime years without lingering risk from his later seasons. Paired with stars like Aaron Judge, the outfielder’s peak could significantly boost New York’s chances to compete at the highest level. Should the Yankees win a World Series in either 2026 or 2027, Bellinger’s presence would be a critical component of that success, representing a major payoff for the club’s gamble on his contract.
This is going to be a disaster contract.
Your reminder Bellinger has a career .660 OPS in the playoffs & has 1 season worthy of $32M+ in the last 6 years. https://t.co/jbVgWhcCF2
— Stephen Meyer (@StephenMeyerRDC) January 21, 2026
