As Major League Baseball‘s pitchers and catchers convene at training sites in Arizona and Florida, attention turns beyond the current season to the highly anticipated 2027 MLB free agency rankings. This early look at the top pitchers and breakout candidates is meant to offer a snapshot as teams and fans prepare for next winter’s open-market decisions.
Of course, much can change before the offseason arrives. Some players may re-sign with their current teams or choose not to opt out, while others could face injuries or performance declines that alter their prospects. Additionally, the looming expiration of the Collective Bargaining Agreement in December raises the possibility of a lockout, which might influence how franchise owners approach negotiations. Still, past behavior suggests front offices may maintain similar valuations despite potential work stoppages.
Tarik Skubal Poised for a Historic Season and Market Impact
Left-handed pitcher Tarik Skubal faces a pivotal year as he aims to secure his third straight Cy Young Award, a rare achievement last accomplished by Randy Johnson in 2002. If successful, Skubal has the potential to reshape the free-agent pitching market. The current record for the largest pitcher contract stands at $325 million, held by Yoshinobu Yamamoto, while the highest average annual value is $43.3 million, shared by Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander. Skubal’s goal is to surpass at least one of these milestones during his upcoming free agency.
Bo Bichette’s Early Deal Leaves Door Open for a Big Future Move
Second baseman and shortstop Bo Bichette recently signed a three-year, $126 million contract with the Mets, which includes two opt-out clauses. Whether Bichette will activate his first opt-out remains uncertain, but precedent set by players like Alex Bregman suggests it is possible. Success on the field, relief from a qualifying offer restriction, and a more lucrative market driven by a new Collective Bargaining Agreement could all influence his decision. For now, this possibility remains open.
Jazz Chisholm Jr. Combines Durability and Dynamic Offense
Jazz Chisholm Jr. has reached new personal bests in games played over consecutive seasons, quieting earlier doubts about his durability. Maintaining this trend could allow teams to focus on improving his hitting consistency, as Chisholm currently ranks in the 7th percentile for contact rate. Despite this, he offers considerable upside with his powerful offensive capabilities, having demonstrated his 30-30 potential, and solid defensive skills up the middle. Still only 28, Chisholm is well positioned for continued growth.
Freddy Peralta Emerges from Shadow with Strong Recent Performance
Right-hander Freddy Peralta has often worked under the radar behind teammates like Corbin Burnes and Brandon Woodruff, but a career-best season earned him Cy Young consideration for the first time. Over the last three years, he ranks 12th in pitcher Wins Above Replacement, positioned between elite lefties Max Fried and Blake Snell, both of whom secured large free-agent deals last winter with average annual values north of $27 million. Some executives believe Peralta may seek a similar contract, making the Mets’ efforts to retain him critical.
Trevor Rogers’ 2026 Season Could Define His Market Value
Left-handed pitcher Trevor Rogers has much riding on the coming season. After an impressive 18 starts last year, it remains unclear if he can maintain such performance consistently. The previous year saw him demoted to the minors following a midseason trade acquisition, underscoring the uncertainty. If Rogers meets his career averages—including a 110 ERA+ and a 2.67 strikeout-to-walk ratio—he should command a substantial contract during free agency.
Kevin Gausman Continues as a Reliable Starting Pitcher
Though he has not been in Cy Young conversations during the past two seasons, right-hander Kevin Gausman remains a dependable and durable presence, potentially marking his sixth consecutive year with over 30 starts. At nearly 36 years old, Gausman’s ability to maintain an ERA+ above 100 and a strikeout-to-walk ratio mostly over 3.00 suggests he will be in the market for a modest two- to three-year deal.
Nico Hoerner Offers Contact Hitting and Defensive Versatility
While not universally appealing, second baseman Nico Hoerner blends strong contact hitting with solid defensive skills and speed on the bases, averaging more than 34 stolen bases per season since 2023. He is not a power player and has drawn walks in less than 7% of his plate appearances recently, but front offices valuing well-rounded production could find him a valuable asset beyond comparisons to players like Luis Arraez.
Jesús Luzardo’s Health and Availability Influence His Ranking
Left-hander Jesús Luzardo possesses promising talent with a 116 ERA+ since 2022, but his unpredictable health has limited his availability. Having alternated between fewer than 20 and over 30 starts in recent seasons, Luzardo remains a risky long-term investment, though a healthy campaign in 2026 could elevate his position among top free-agent pitchers.
Daulton Varsho’s Defense and Offensive Upside
Outfielder Daulton Varsho is renowned for his defensive prowess and recently posted a career-best offensive season on a per-plate-appearance basis, despite missing a large portion of the year. Over his career, Varsho has been a roughly league-average hitter who offsets a swing-heavy approach with potent pull-side power. His defensive skills provide a solid baseline for his value regardless of offensive consistency.
Kris Bubic’s Future Hinges on Staying Healthy and Consistent
Left-handed pitcher Kris Bubic carries a ranking that depends heavily on his ability to produce both quality and quantity innings. Across the last three seasons, he has thrown only 162 major-league innings, most of which came in 2025. Despite a strong showing when healthy, an injury-shortened campaign due to a strained rotator cuff leaves his role in next winter’s free-agent market uncertain but worth monitoring closely.
The 2027 MLB free agency class offers a blend of established stars like Tarik Skubal and Freddy Peralta, emerging talents such as Jazz Chisholm Jr. and Bo Bichette, and intriguing wild cards including Jesús Luzardo and Kris Bubic. How these players perform over the coming months, combined with potential changes in the league’s labor landscape, will shape the offer sheets and contract sizes in the offseason. Teams seeking to bolster pitching and breakout talent will be closely watching these athletes as negotiations unfold.
