CLEVELAND, Ohio — Sam Darnold is set to become the first quarterback from the 2018 NFL Draft class to start in the Super Bowl tonight. This longstanding quarterback class, which includes Baker Mayfield (No. 1 overall pick), Darnold (No. 3), Josh Allen (No. 7), and Lamar Jackson (No. 32), continues to attract attention every season due to the remarkable talent it produced.
While Jackson and Allen are widely regarded as the top two quarterbacks from this class, the battle for third place has grown increasingly competitive between Mayfield and Darnold. In recent years, Darnold’s performances have sparked debates about whether he has surpassed Mayfield in the rankings of this draft class.
Career Paths and Recent Performances
Both Mayfield and Darnold have undergone career transformations after challenging beginnings. Their shared experience includes spending part of the 2022 season together in Carolina, where Darnold served as Mayfield’s backup until Mayfield was released.
Mayfield’s resurgence came through Tampa Bay, where his play earned him Pro Bowl appearances and playoff runs. Conversely, Darnold revitalized his career starting in Minnesota, where he was initially intended to be a backup, before moving on to Seattle this season. His efforts also earned him multiple Pro Bowl selections.
Given these recent developments, analysts are closely examining whether Darnold has overtaken Mayfield as the third-best quarterback from the 2018 class, particularly focusing on their 2025 season performances. This analysis relies on regular-season metrics to provide an objective comparison.
Comparing Their Pocket Awareness and Decision-Making
An NFL quarterback’s ability to make quick decisions immediately after the snap is critical. Both Mayfield and Darnold have demonstrated competence in releasing the ball rapidly this season. Per Next Gen Stats, Mayfield tied for 25th fastest with an average time to throw of 2.85 seconds, just ahead of Darnold, who tied for 27th at 2.86 seconds.
However, their playing styles diverge significantly. Mayfield often adopts a “backyard-esque” approach, frequently scrambling out of the pocket to evade pressure. This mobility has paid off, as he ranks first among quarterbacks in yards per rush (6.9) and is tied for second in gaining first downs on third-down rushes (21), according to JoeBucsFan. Yet, this style has led to him being sacked 36 times, of which he was responsible for 11 — a middling figure among qualifying quarterbacks as reported by Pro Football Focus (PFF).
Darnold, in contrast, tends to operate within the pocket, prioritizing quick throws under three seconds rather than scrambling. This approach has been effective; he was sacked only 27 times this season and was responsible for just three sacks, tied for seventh fewest by PFF standards. His pocket presence aided him in achieving a tied eighth-best completion percentage at 67.7%. While each quarterback has a distinct style, Darnold’s method has yielded more consistent team benefits so far this season.
Long-Range Passing and Efficiency
Throwing deep is a hallmark of an NFL quarterback’s skill set, but effectiveness varies greatly. Mayfield’s deep ball statistics are mixed despite aggressive attempts. According to PFF, he ranks 11th with 24 completions on passes 20+ yards downfield but sits 24th in deep-ball completion percentage at 36.9%. Although Mayfield ranks 14th in intended air yards (8.0), his average air yards per completion drops significantly to 5.2, tied for 29th overall. The Tampa Bay offense’s West Coast scheme, which emphasizes short and precise passes, might partly explain this discrepancy; yet, Mayfield ran similar offenses in Cleveland under coach Kevin Stefanski in 2020 and 2021, where his air yard averages were higher, at 7.2 and 6.5 respectively.
Darnold, playing in a West Coast offense with Seattle this season, showed greater efficiency on deep throws. He ranked fifth in deep-ball completions (30) and second in deep-ball completion percentage (58.8%) by PFF metrics. Despite fewer deep attempts (51 compared to Mayfield’s 65), Darnold’s accuracy and effectiveness were superior. His air yards per completion averaged 7.0, tied for sixth among all quarterbacks, marking an improvement over prior seasons.
Performance in the Red Zone
Success in the red zone often defines a quarterback’s ability to capitalize on scoring opportunities. Both Mayfield and Darnold have demonstrated solid production inside the 20-yard line this season, though Mayfield holds a slight edge.
According to SumerSports, Mayfield boasts a quicker average time to throw in the red zone at 2.74 seconds, a higher completion percentage of 59.7%, and a more favorable touchdown-to-interception ratio of 16 touchdowns to one interception. Darnold’s average depth of target (ADOT) in the red zone is better at 6.25 yards, which suggests he attempts deeper passes in scoring situations. Nonetheless, Mayfield’s overall red zone efficiency surpasses Darnold’s metrics.
Clutch Play and Game-Winning Drives
Quarterbacks often earn their reputations by their performance in clutch moments, especially in late-game situations. Mayfield currently leads in this area among the 2018 class, with 16 career game-winning drives, including four during the first five weeks of the 2025 season. One of those came against Darnold’s Seattle team.
Mayfield has repeatedly guided Tampa Bay to narrow victories by orchestrating crucial drives in the final moments, even when Tampa Bay did not hold the lead entering the final minute.
Darnold, though less synonymous with clutch comebacks, still holds 14 career game-winning drives. This season alone, he has directed four, including an overtime rally against the Los Angeles Rams. In that game, Seattle overcame a 16-point deficit in the fourth quarter, with Darnold capping the comeback by throwing a decisive two-point conversion pass to Jaxon Smith-Njigba.
Evaluating the Quarterback Hierarchy of the 2018 Draft Class
Based on their recent performances, Sam Darnold has generally taken the lead over Baker Mayfield as the third-most accomplished quarterback from the 2018 NFL Draft. However, the longevity and stability of that rank will depend heavily on Darnold’s continued play and ability to maintain or improve upon his current level.
With Darnold poised to play a central role in the Super Bowl tonight, he has the opportunity to become the first quarterback from this draft to secure a championship ring. Such a victory could further solidify his standing relative to Mayfield and influence how this quarterback class is viewed in the coming years.
