Cairo Santos, the Chicago Bears‘ kicker, finished the recent season with a field goal success rate of 83.3%, making 25 of 30 attempts. While this percentage may seem average, a more nuanced statistic—Kick Value Added (KVA)—provides a clearer measure of his effectiveness, especially considering the challenges faced in Chicago. KVA accounts for the difficulty of each kick relative to league norms at varying distances, allowing for a fairer comparison among kickers.
Adam Fromal of FanSided analyzed 43 NFL kickers using KVA, placing Santos 15th overall. This ranking reflects Santos’ resilience and ability to perform under difficult environmental conditions, that often hamper kickers playing in the Windy City, such as harsh winds and low temperatures at Soldier Field.
How Chicago’s Environment Impacts Santos’ Performance
Lake Michigan’s winds and the bitter cold at Soldier Field have historically made kicking difficult for Bears players, contributing to Chicago being one of only two NFL teams with a negative total KVA across their franchise history. Despite that, Santos stands out as an exception due to his consistent success. Examining his home game performances during the 2025 season reveals his ability to handle such challenges.
Santos’ home game stats during the season highlight his adaptability:
- Sept. 8: Made 1 of 2 field goals and all 3 extra points (-1.5951 KVA) with 6 mph winds at 68°F
- Sept. 21: Perfect on field goals and 4 XPs (0.3042 KVA) with 4 mph winds at 82°F
- Nov. 9: Made 1 of 1 field goal and 3 XPs (0.1269 KVA) with 10 mph winds at 33°F
- Nov. 23: Perfect field goal and XPs (0.8397 KVA) with 3 mph winds at 51°F
- Dec. 14: Made 1 of 2 field goals and 4 XPs (-2.0568 KVA) with 6 mph winds at 8°F
- Dec. 20: Perfect on 3 field goals and 1 XP (2.0223 KVA) with 6 mph winds at 37°F
- Jan. 10: Perfect on 3 field goals and 2 XPs (1.1826 KVA) with 6 mph winds at 32°F
- Jan. 18: Made 1 of 1 field goal and 2 XPs (0.7866 KVA) with 6 mph winds at 19°F
In the five games with temperatures below 40 degrees, Santos posted a combined KVA of 2.0616. Given the harsh weather, performances above the breakeven KVA level like these are notably impressive and suggest that his kicking is more reliable than many might assume.
Understanding the Value Santos Brings to the Bears
“Given the winds that whip in off Lake Michigan and the bitter cold that pervades Soldier Field, kickers don’t usually find much late-season success in Chicago. It’s a big reason the Bears have historically struggled to find quality options at the position and are one of two NFL franchises with negative total KVA throughout their existence. Cairo Santos, however, is the exception. Take a gander at the conditions for his home performances in 2025…” – Adam Fromal, FanSided
This perspective adds depth to the common debate among Bears fans regarding Santos’ reliability. Although some question his consistency, considering Chicago’s unique conditions helps explain why his stats may look mediocre at first glance but are actually quite solid when contextualized. His 15th place KVA ranking underscores his value in a demanding environment.
What Santos’ Contract Year Means for the Bears’ Future
As Santos enters a contract year in 2027 at age 34, his recent performances provide both the franchise and fans a basis for optimism. While the Bears could consider alternatives, Santos would have to perform very poorly to lose the trust he has earned given the environmental challenges he navigates so effectively. His ability to maintain positive kicking value even in adverse weather conditions offers stability for the kicking position, historically a problem area for Chicago.
Given these factors, the Bears should feel confident about retaining Santos for the upcoming campaigns. His solid KVA ranking amid difficult conditions supports the idea that his kicking performance is a strength worth celebrating rather than questioning.
