Hideki Matsuyama, a two-time winner at the WM Phoenix Open, has positioned himself to secure a third title at TPC Scottsdale after shooting a 68 on Saturday to claim the solo lead heading into the final round on Sunday. Building on an impressive 64 on Friday, Matsuyama’s steady performance on the back nine during Moving Day kept him in contention, setting the stage for a potential record-setting victory in Arizona.
Matsuyama’s Strong Showing Places Him at the Summit
Matsuyama wasted no time making an impact, grabbing a birdie on the first hole to tie for the lead and maintaining that position throughout the day. His round began with a flurry of activity—three birdies and two bogeys across the first five holes—but he soon settled into a smooth rhythm, navigating TPC Scottsdale with relative ease and minimal drama.
One of the defining factors in Matsuyama’s success this week is his exceptional putting, often a weaker aspect of his game. At TPC Scottsdale, he appears to be exceptionally comfortable on the greens, ranking among the top 10 players in strokes gained putting during the tournament. His ability to sink putts within 10 feet, demonstrating precise control of line and speed in the challenging desert conditions, has been crucial to his consistent scoring.
Although Saturday’s round was solid, Matsuyama did not reach the extremely low scores that some of his team members hoped for in the final pairing, leading to a tightly packed leaderboard behind him. As the tournament approaches its conclusion, nine competitors lie within two strokes of Matsuyama’s lead, aware that strong rounds in the mid-60s on Sunday could easily shake up the leaderboard.
Weather Conditions and Early Groups Could Influence Sunday’s Outcome
Sunday’s weather is forecast to be favorable, although increasing winds in the latter part of the day could impact play. Golfers teeing off earlier might benefit from calmer conditions to challenge the leaders atop the leaderboard. Among those well-positioned to make an early charge is World No. 1 Scottie Scheffler, a two-time Phoenix Open champion himself. Scheffler overcame a sluggish start on Saturday to produce a 67, advancing to a tie for 16th place at 8 under par, five shots behind Matsuyama.
Scheffler’s performance left some scoring opportunities untapped early in his third round, and if he can begin Sunday with more urgency, he could apply significant pressure on Matsuyama and the front runners. His potential surge adds an added layer of intensity to the pursuit of the tournament crown.
Matsuyama’s Commanding Lead and Track Record at TPC Scottsdale
Currently holding a 13-under total, Matsuyama boasts an outstanding record at TPC Scottsdale, although it has been four years since he last contested the Phoenix Open’s conclusion. This week, all aspects of his game from tee to green appear dialed in, with his confidence on the greens standing out most prominently. His ability to avoid bogeys has set him apart; no other player has matched his consistency given the conditions.
Notably, Matsuyama has a perfect record when entering the final round with a solo lead, having converted every one of his five such opportunities into victories, according to analyst Justin Ray. This history adds to the pressure on his competitors as they seek to close the gap on Sunday.
Key Challengers Lurking Just Behind Matsuyama
The leaderboard is packed with skilled players who have been enjoying strong starts to 2026, promising a thrilling finish to the Phoenix Open. Several contenders are coming off impressive third rounds and carry momentum into the championship day.
Tied for second at 12 under are Nicolai Højgaard, Maverick McNealy, Si Woo Kim, and Ryo Hisatsune, all poised to challenge the leader. At 11 under, Matt Fitzpatrick, Michael Thorbjornsen, and Jake Knapp remain an attentive threat, while John Parry trails closely at 10 under. A cluster of competitors, including Viktor Hovland, Min Woo Lee, Rasmus Højgaard, Chris Gotterup, and Pierceson Coody, share 9 under, with Scheffler and several others at 8 under.
Saturday’s standout rounds include 65s from Hovland, McNealy, Thorbjornsen, and Nicolai Højgaard, who surged into contention after starting well behind the leaders. Meanwhile, Kim, Knapp, and Rasmus Højgaard posted strong 66s and will be looking to duplicate such performances on Sunday to mount a comeback.
Hisatsune, who didn’t find his stride fully on Saturday—ending with a bogey for a 71—has demonstrated strong Sunday capabilities in prior weeks and benefits from not contending in the final group, potentially easing some pressure.
Among the challengers, Scheffler appears to be the player furthest back yet still realistically within range, provided he can deliver a sharper start than has been evident through the first three rounds.
Odds Reflect a Competitive but Favorable Outlook for Matsuyama
According to DraftKings Sportsbook, Hideki Matsuyama remains the favorite with 23/10 odds to claim his third Phoenix Open title, the same odds he held while one shot behind the leader at the halfway mark. Si Woo Kim is seen as the next most likely contender at 5-1, followed closely by Maverick McNealy (6-1), Nicolai Højgaard (15/2), and Ryo Hisatsune (11-1).
- Hideki Matsuyama (23/10)
- Si Woo Kim (5-1)
- Maverick McNealy (6-1)
- Nicolai Højgaard (15/2)
- Ryo Hisatsune (11-1)
- Matt Fitzpatrick (14-1)
- Jake Knapp (14-1)
- Michael Thorbjornsen (16-1)
- Scottie Scheffler (22-1)
Fitzpatrick, despite a difficult finish on Saturday that included a double bogey on No. 16 and a bogey on No. 18, remains an appealing option at 14-1 due to his ability to rack up birdies on this course from just two shots back. Kim is noted for his strong play tee-to-green, though the pressure of putting down the stretch remains a question.
With the leaderboard tightly clustered and the weather conditions offering opportunities for early starters, Sunday’s final round promises a dramatic battle at the WM Phoenix Open. Matsuyama’s pursuit of a historic third win is the central storyline, but the caliber of contenders just behind ensures an intense day of competition at TPC Scottsdale.
Hideki Matsuyama with a 54-hole lead on the PGA Tour
Outright leader: 5-for-5
Sharing the lead: 0-for-31-shot lead entering Sunday after Hisatsune makes bogey at 18.
— Justin Ray (@JustinRayGolf) February 7, 2026
