PPA’s Third Shot Drives: Pickleball, much like its older cousin tennis, thrives on pickleball strategies that can be quantified and analyzed. The “third shot drive/fifth shot drop combo” is a staple in many players’ arsenals, but how often is it employed in professional play? To shed light on this, a detailed study was conducted during the Orange County Cup held in San Clemente, California, on June 30. This study scrutinized nine high-profile matches: the two semi-finals and final in each of Men’s, Women’s, and Mixed Doubles.
These matches provided a rich dataset, featuring a total of 371 third-shot drives. To break it down: 27 of those drives resulted in errors or winners, leaving 344 rallies that continued beyond the third shot.
The Path to the Fifth Shot
Out of these 344 third-shot drives that stayed in play, the receiving team committed 35 errors or winners on their fourth shots, meaning 309 rallies advanced to a fifth shot. The next move often dictated the flow of the rally, with different options utilized based on the situation.
The predominant choice for the fifth shot was a drop shot, either as a volley or off a bounce. This accounted for 203 out of the 309 fifth-shot opportunities, a significant 66 percent.
Following closely was the firm volley, a decisive shot either by the player who initially drove the third shot or their teammate, known for pickleball strategies like the “shake and bake.” This option was chosen 98 times, representing 31 percent of the fifth-shot opportunities.
The least common choices were a drive off the bounce or a lob, with a mere eight occurrences (seven drives and one lob), making up just three percent of the fifth-shot opportunities.
Results and Insights
The study revealed that the “third shot drive, fifth shot drop” combination was employed in 68 percent of the fifth-shot opportunities during the six semi-final matches, 61 percent during the three finals matches, and 66 percent overall.
An intriguing secondary finding was that only 17 percent of the pros’ rallies involving third-shot drives concluded on the third or fourth shot. It’s expected that this percentage would be higher at lower levels of amateur play, where the precision and consistency of players are not as refined.
Focusing on the immediate outcomes of a third shot drive, before even reaching a fifth shot opportunity, the data showed that 62 out of the 371 rallies ended on the third or fourth shot. The receiving team had a slight edge here: 36 of these 62 rallies ended either due to a third-shot drive error or a fourth-shot winner (58%), while 26 ended due to a third-shot drive winner or a fourth-shot error (42%).
The third shot drive initiates a sequence that frequently results in a fifth shot drop. This pattern shows the tactical depth of pickleball at the professional level, providing a clearer understanding of how this pickleball strategy is deployed in high-stakes matches. As the sport continues to evolve, so too will the strategies, but for now, the third shot drive remains a cornerstone of competitive play.
News in Brief: PPA’s Third Shot Drives
A detailed study during the Orange County Cup on June 30 analyzed nine high-profile pickleball matches to understand the prevalence of the “third shot drive/fifth shot drop combo.” The study found that out of 371 third-shot drives, 344 stayed in play, with 309 advancing to a fifth shot.
The predominant fifth shot was a drop shot, used 66% of the time, followed by a firm volley at 31%. Only 3% were driven off the bounce or lobs. The “third shot drive, fifth shot drop” combo was employed in 66% of cases overall, highlighting its tactical importance in professional play. Additionally, only 17% of rallies involving third-shot drives ended on the third or fourth shot.
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