The Athletics have been actively reshaping their roster as they prepare for the 2026 season, aiming to overturn the recent perceptions surrounding their franchise. By acquiring veteran Jeff McNeil, making key draft picks, and signing free agents, the team is positioning itself for potential improvement according to the Athletics 2026 ZiPS projections, a system that evaluates player performance forecasts to assess team prospects.
Assessment of the Athletics’ Position Players for 2026
The Athletics’ lineup features a youthful core led by reigning Rookie of the Year Nick Kurtz, supported by several players with limited major league experience. Six out of nine expected starters have two years or less of service time, highlighting the team’s emphasis on developing young talent. The addition of veteran Jeff McNeil, acquired from the Mets, brings essential experience and leadership to a lineup previously lacking a baseline of veteran presence.
Power hitting remains the main avenue for the Athletics’ offensive production. Last season, four players—Nick Kurtz (36 home runs), Langeliers (31), Brent Rooker (30), and Soderstrom (25)—each surpassed 25 homers, and ZiPS projects a similar outcome for 2026. Lawrence Butler and Colby Thomas, a right-handed corner outfielder with a strong minor league track record, are projected to contribute significantly with 21 and 19 home runs respectively, while Thomas’s .435 slugging percentage and 103 OPS+ projection suggest he could balance a lineup that leans heavily on left-handed hitters.
Jacob Wilson, not traditionally viewed as a power hitter, is forecasted to hit 10 home runs, down from 13 last year, though there is reasonable expectation he could reach closer to 15 given his playing environment. Defensive concerns affect Tyler Soderstrom’s outlook; despite being a Gold Glove finalist, ZiPS predicts a negative defensive value that lowers his overall contribution to 1.0 fWAR. However, increased experience in the outfield during the offseason may improve his defensive metrics.
The competition for the third base position appears unsettled, with Max Muncy, Darell Hernaiz, and Brett Harris projected as the primary contenders. Surprisingly, Hernaiz leads projections with a 91 OPS+ and 1.9 fWAR despite his bat offering limited upside. Harris is projected to slightly outperform Muncy, supporting his profile as a player capable of maintaining average-level performance across various facets, though none of the three are expected to reach league-average offensive impact.
One notable projection difference involves Brent Rooker and Nick Kurtz; ZiPS favors Rooker slightly with a 138 OPS+ and 3.7 WAR compared to Kurtz’s 135 OPS+ and 2.9 WAR. Rooker’s larger major league sample stabilizes his forecast, whereas Kurtz’s exceptional rookie statistics present a greater challenge for predictive accuracy. Despite this, both players are valuable offensive contributors, with Kurtz’s ability to improve pitch recognition offering potential to lower his strikeout rate and raise his overall effectiveness.
Projections and Challenges Facing the Athletics’ Pitching Staff
The pitching staff remains the Athletics’ most significant concern going into 2026. Last season’s struggles on the mound were pronounced, with injury setbacks and inexperience limiting overall performance. The rotation lacks an established workhorse, as no starter is projected to exceed 150 innings pitched. Veterans Jeffrey Springs and Luis Severino are expected to lead with 142 and 139 innings respectively, but both carry histories of injury. Luis Morales, a promising 23-year-old, is projected for 121 innings while still developing endurance to handle a full major league starter’s workload.
While the rotation includes several young arms like Jacob Lopez and J.T. Ginn, who showed flashes of potential, the volume of innings needed to be logged by these inexperienced pitchers is a gamble that brings uncertainty. Depth in innings-eating starters is an area where the Athletics appear vulnerable, reflecting the risk of relying on multiple youngsters to fill key rotation roles—an approach that teams like the Angels have struggled with in the past.
In the bullpen, projections offer little optimism. Of the available candidates, only Justin Sterner is predicted to hold an ERA below 4.00, at 3.94, emphasizing persistent weakness in relief pitching. FanGraphs currently ranks the Athletics’ bullpen among the lowest in the league based on fWAR. Despite this, some pitchers such as Elvis Alvarado and potential addition Jack Perkins have been noted as possible performers who may outperform expectations. Perkins, in particular, is viewed as a candidate for the closer role, which could provide the Athletics with a reliable late-inning option if realized.
The likelihood of a pitching breakout appears slim according to ZiPS. While players like Luis Morales have the potential to exceed projections, the system estimates a 4.29 ERA with 8.2 strikeouts per nine innings, less than what might be required for a breakthrough season. Similarly, Gage Jump, a highly regarded prospect climbing the rankings, is forecasted to deliver a solid rookie year with a 4.17 ERA and 97 strikeouts over 108 innings but not a sudden leap to elite status. Jacob Lopez is also projected to be serviceable at a 3.98 ERA, but not a surprise star. Overall, a pitching breakout is more likely to emerge unexpectedly from an unknown bullpen arm rather than a starter.
Reflection on the Athletics’ Overall Outlook via ZiPS
The ZiPS projections sketch a clear narrative for the Athletics in 2026, emphasizing strengths and weaknesses that align broadly with recent team developments. The lineup’s top half is expected to be a compelling source of offense, driven by youthful talent supplemented by the veteran presence of Jeff McNeil. However, depth remains an issue, particularly beyond the core starters and power hitters, which could limit the team’s consistency at the plate.
The pitching staff, especially the bullpen, presents the largest concern. Despite flashes of promise and some emerging talents, the thin depth and reliance on young, unproven pitchers highlight the ongoing challenge for the Athletics to field a dependable pitching unit. Injuries and innings limitations for key starters add to the uncertainty surrounding the staff’s ability to keep the team competitive.
Ultimately, while ZiPS projections provide a valuable analytical frame to gauge where the Athletics stand compared to other teams, caution is warranted given the system’s limitations in assessing young player growth and potential surprise performances. For Athletics fans, the most hopeful takeaway is the possibility that emerging players might defy expectations, offering a brighter outcome than the projections suggest as the team continues its rebuilding phase into 2026.
