The Baltimore Orioles took a calculated risk signing Tomoyuki Sugano to a one-year contract last offseason, and now that the right-hander is a free agent again, his intention to continue pitching in Major League Baseball is clear. As Sugano evaluates his options following his first MLB season, Baltimore faces the question of whether reuniting with him aligns with their team objectives and roster construction.
Reports from Yahoo Japan indicate Sugano is not considering a return to Nippon Professional Baseball and is instead awaiting offers after completing his debut MLB year. Although specific teams were not mentioned, the understanding is that Sugano aims to prove his value and continue his MLB career beyond his uneven season with Baltimore.
Strong Early Performance Undermined by Later Difficulties
Sugano began his season in Baltimore promisingly, delivering a 3.04 ERA through his initial dozen appearances and providing much-needed innings in a rotation seeking consistency rather than dominance. His hallmark precision was clear early on, as he maintained exceptional control and concluded the year with a 5.3% walk rate, ranking among the best in the league.
However, challenges soon emerged as his ability to generate strikeouts lagged behind. According to Charlie Wright of MLB Trade Rumors, Sugano’s 15.7% strikeout rate placed him in the sixth percentile, and his swinging-strike rate was notably low for starters pitching over 150 innings. As a consequence, a high number of balls were put into play, many of which were hit hard, leading to 33 home runs allowed — the third-most in the league — driven by an elevated fly-ball rate and an 11.8% barrel rate.
Underlying advanced metrics from Fangraphs suggested this downward trend was anticipated. Even during his strong start, his expected FIP (xFIP) and Skill-Interactive ERA (SIERA) were in the mid-4.00s, signaling inevitable regression rather than a temporary slump. For Sugano, who relies on control and finesse over power, the margin for error in MLB proved extraordinarily slim.
Factors Supporting the Orioles’ Possible Return to Sugano
Context is crucial in evaluating Sugano’s performance and potential fit. Transitioning to MLB at age 35, he faced tougher lineups and smaller ballparks than those in Japan. Just the previous year, Sugano dominated Nippon Professional Baseball, completing the 2022 season with a 15-3 record and an impressive 1.67 ERA, striking out very few hitters around only 2.6% walk rate. The level of skill he demonstrated in Japan has not vanished abruptly.
Sugano offers a distinctive six-pitch mix anchored by a splitter and sweeper, enhanced by a confident sinker and cutter. While his four-seam fastball averaged a modest 92.7 mph and his Stuff+ score was 92, his strategy remains focused on pitch sequencing, deception, and minimizing mistakes rather than overpowering hitters.
This nuanced skill set defines the Orioles’ decision-making challenge. Baltimore does not expect Sugano to be a frontline ace but rather seeks reliable innings, depth, and stability while younger pitchers mature. If Sugano accepts a shorter deal with incentives, the Orioles might prefer him as a familiar option over an unproven alternative, having experienced both his promising and difficult moments firsthand.
What Sugano’s Continuation in MLB Means for the Orioles
Sugano’s persistence in MLB appears certain, but the question remains whether that continuation will happen with Baltimore. His inaugural season raised important questions about his durability and effectiveness at this level, yet also provided evidence of his value when he is at his best. Baltimore must weigh these mixed results against their present needs and long-term plans as they consider a possible reunion.
The decision will significantly shape the Orioles’ pitching staff composition going forward, potentially providing veteran experience and steadiness or requiring them to explore other options. For Sugano, securing another MLB contract means proving that his first season was only the beginning of his major league story, not its conclusion.
