Zebby Matthews emerged as one of the fastest-rising prospects in recent Minnesota Twins history after being selected 234th overall in the 2022 draft from Western Carolina University. Signing for $125,000, Matthews defied expectations by debuting in the major leagues by mid-August 2024, climbing swiftly from an overlooked prospect to a recognized talent. However, his initial promise has since faced setbacks, as inconsistent performance across 117 innings in the majors has raised doubts about his future role.
Matthews initially excelled due to his precision in the strike zone, ability to generate strikeouts without issuing walks, and a noticeable uptick in fastball velocity. These attributes fueled optimism, but in the majors, his walk rate has almost tripled from roughly 2.0% in the minors to 6.6%, while his strikeout percentage has dropped by about eight points. This decline over a relatively limited sample size has sparked debate about whether his future lies in the starting rotation or in a bullpen role.
Evaluation of Matthews’s Pitch Selection and Effectiveness
On paper, Matthews shows the components of a prototypical starting pitcher’s arsenal projected for 2026. He predominantly utilizes his four-seam fastball and slider, deploying them at similar rates against both left- and right-handed hitters—293 four-seamers and 140 sliders against lefties in 2025, alongside 263 and 199, respectively, against righties. Matthews also integrates his cutter more frequently against left-handers and almost exclusively throws changeups to lefties, adding occasional curveballs and sinkers to maintain unpredictability.
Despite this theoretical balance, only one pitch—the gyro slider—has performed reliably in the majors. Unlike traditional sliders with notable horizontal sweeping movement, Matthews’s slider exhibits significant vertical drop but minimal side-to-side break. This is attributable to a gyroscopic spin pattern akin to a tight football spiral, which causes movement primarily due to gravity rather than spin-induced deviation.
The results confirm the slider’s effectiveness: over 525 major league throws, batters have recorded just a .568 OPS against it, supported by a whiff rate near 40% and a 42% ground ball rate. This combination means hitters often miss the pitch completely or hit weak grounders, underscoring its role as Matthews’s best weapon.
Limitations in Fastball Movement and Other Pitches
Matthews’s other offerings, including his four-seam fastball, have been less impressive at the major league level. While his rapid velocity helped him dominate in the minors, MLB hitters have shown a greater ability to square up his fastball. High velocity alone is insufficient against elite competition without sufficient movement to challenge hitters’ timing and contact quality.
Two critical metrics gauge fastball deception: induced vertical break and horizontal break. Induced vertical break measures the spin-induced deviation upwards against gravity, creating the illusion of a rising fastball. Horizontal break assesses lateral movement, categorized as ‘cut’ if it moves toward the pitcher’s glove side or ‘run’ if it moves toward the hand side. A typical fastball balances these breaks to make batting difficult.
Matthews’s fastballs fall into what analysts call the “dead zone,” showing limited movement in either axis. His four-seamer has 16.6 inches of induced vertical break and 9.0 inches of horizontal run, while his sinker shows 13.1 inches vertical and 15.2 inches horizontal break. This combination results in pitches that appear relatively straight to hitters, reducing the difficulty of making solid contact.
Corroborating this, hitters have recorded a .944 OPS against Matthews’s four-seamer on 839 pitches and an alarming 1.368 OPS on 82 sinkers. His cutters (.955 OPS over 294 pitches), changeups (.817 OPS on 200 pitches), and curveballs (.931 OPS across 130 pitches) similarly have not performed well, offering little consistent threat beyond his slider.
Splits Reveal Strength Against Right-Handed Hitters
Matthews’s statistics demonstrate a clear split in effectiveness by batter handedness. He has fared considerably better against right-handed hitters, posting a .714 OPS compared to a .944 OPS against lefties. Furthermore, his strikeout-minus-walk rate is 20.2% vs. righties but dips to 16.2% against left-handers. This disparity indicates Matthews’s current arsenal and approach are more effective when facing right-handed batters, pointing toward potential role adjustments.
Assessing Matthews’s Optimal Role Moving Forward
Succeeding as a major league starter generally requires multiple quality pitches capable of keeping hitters off balance. Currently, Matthews’s inventory features just one reliably effective offering, making it challenging to project him as a consistent starter without further development. Fortunately, transitioning into a bullpen role remains an achievable pathway. Historical precedents such as Glen Perkins, Tyler Duffey, and Griffin Jax illustrate how pitchers with middling starters’ repertoires can reinvent themselves as high-impact relievers once they specialize and amplify their best pitches.
To reclaim a spot in the rotation, Matthews likely needs to add at least one additional above-average pitch—a sweeping breaking ball or a more deceptive changeup could complement his gyro slider—or improve the movement and shape of his fastball. Of these options, developing a new pitch is generally more achievable than significantly altering intrinsic pitch spin characteristics. The Twins’ advanced analytics and biomechanical data will assist in identifying the best developmental path, including whether Matthews’s arm action favors certain pitch types and if untapped athletic potential can be leveraged.
For now, while the Minnesota Twins may continue to deploy Matthews as a starter, the evidence points to his profile aligning more naturally with a bullpen role in the near term. His ability to dominate with one premium pitch suggests he could flourish as a late-inning reliever if he embraces such a transition.
