Tanner Scott entered the 2024 offseason as the Los Angeles Dodgers‘ second-largest free-agent signing, expected to strengthen a bullpen that had been crucial to their recent success, including a World Series title. The team, relying heavily on a limited starting rotation and a dominant bullpen, anticipated that Scott’s presence would further solidify their relief corps.
Despite a slow beginning to the season, Scott appeared to find his rhythm for a period, only to falter again subsequently. His 2025 season ended with a 4.74 ERA and a 4.70 FIP, accompanied by a 17.6% strikeout-to-walk rate, an improvement over his 16.3% mark in 2024. Unfortunately, an untimely lower-body abscess led to him missing the entirety of the postseason’s NLDS, NLCS, and World Series, although he still earned a championship ring as part of the team.
Midseason Adjustments and Declining Effectiveness
Midway through the 2025 regular season, around June 16, there was optimism that Scott was turning his fortunes around. A key adjustment involved altering the arm angle on his four-seam fastball, historically his strongest pitch. In 2024, his fastball had an outstanding run value per 100 pitches (RV/100) at 1.987, ranking fifth among relievers behind players such as Cade Smith, Bryan Hudson, Kirby Yates, and Will Vest.
Comparing his fastball metrics between 2024 and 2025 revealed a sharp decline. In 2024, Scott ranked first in exit velocity (EV), eighth in launch angle (LA), eleventh in whiff percentage, second in hard-hit percentage, and fifth in RV/100 among qualified relievers. However, in 2025, these rankings fell dramatically: EV dropped to 33rd, LA to 39th, whiff percentage to 41st, hard-hit percentage to 36th, and RV/100 to 53rd out of 60 qualified relievers. These shifts highlight a significant downturn in the effectiveness of his primary pitch.
Changes in Fastball Delivery and Consequences
After June 17, Scott’s fastball underwent subtle but impactful alterations, notably a raised release point paired with reduced arm-side movement. The increased horizontal and vertical release points (HRP and VRP) contributed to diminishing the pitch’s deception. Following these changes, Scott’s fastball was hit hard, resulting in a slash line of .286/.368/.612 and a weighted on-base average (wOBA) of .411. In just over 23 innings after mid-June, he surrendered seven of his eleven home runs, five directly from his four-seam fastball.
Although early-season struggles may have stemmed from being overly reliant on strikes, later performance was hindered by a more predictable, straighter fastball, often belt-high in the strike zone, allowing hitters to anticipate and capitalize on his pitches.
Slider Performance Also Deteriorated in Second Half
Scott’s slider mirrored his fastball’s trajectory throughout the season: effective before mid-June, significantly less so afterward. His RV/100 on this pitch was 1.449 before June 16 but plummeted to -0.460 in the latter half. Across two nearly equal sample sizes (216 vs. 213 pitches), this demonstrates a clear loss in effectiveness.
While weighted metrics such as whiff rate and release points remained mostly constant, batters increasingly targeted the slider, anticipating its location and waiting for pitches at elevated levels. This predictability led to Scott allowing a spike in on-base percentage and slugging percentage against. He yielded only two home runs on his slider during the season, both after June, but four of the ten hits allowed on the slider were for extra bases, further damaging his performance.
The Critical Home Run Issue Undermining Scott’s Value
The most troubling aspect of Scott’s season was his home run rate and the high stakes of those runs. Out of the 11 home runs given up in 2025, six were pivotal in changing or deciding the game’s outcome—either tying it or leading to a walk-off loss. Considering Scott’s extensive use in high-leverage situations, this outcome is particularly impactful. This contrasts sharply with his earlier career, where from 2022 to 2024 combined, he allowed just 11 home runs across over 212 innings.
Previously regarded as one of the best at limiting home runs—second only to Dylan Floro since 2017 with a 0.68 HR/9 compared to Floro’s 0.56—Scott’s fly ball rate surged from 26.4% in 2024 to an alarming 40.5% in 2025. Correspondingly, his home-run-to-fly-ball ratio (HR/FB%) rose to a career-worst 17.7%. These trends make it clear why he was more susceptible to hard contact and damaging hits throughout the season.
Increasing Pull Air Percentage and Pitch Location Challenges
Scott also experienced a significant increase in the percentage of balls pulled in the air against him, rising from 5.8% the previous year to a career-high 20.5% in 2025. This jump in Pull AIR% led to more costly extra-base hits, as opposing hitters exploited Scott’s escape routes and pitch location.
Analyzing his pitching heatmaps from 2022 through 2024 compared with 2025 reveals a troubling shift. In his peak seasons, Scott dominated by living mostly on the inner third of the plate for right-handed hitters and the outer third for lefties, which allowed his slider to thrive. However, in 2025, there were more pitches left over the heart of the plate and a noticeable increase in uncompetitive pitches both in and out of the strike zone. This gave hitters clearer take/no-take decisions and easier opportunities to attack his “grooved” pitches.
The Path to Redemption: Rediscovering Command and Control
Scott’s predicament seems paradoxical—he needs to be better “less in the strike zone” and “more in the strike zone” simultaneously. This means refining command to place pitches precisely on the edges of the plate and avoid hanging too many strikes in the middle, which hitters eagerly punish. His effectiveness relied heavily on fine control near the strike zone’s boundaries, and losing this edge has made his pitches predictable and vulnerable.
The solution likely centers on regaining trust and consistency in his release mechanics and pitch location, restoring the deceptive arm angles and movement that once made his fastball and slider elite. If Scott can adjust and reclaim his craftiness near the zone’s limits, he may reverse his troubling trend and return to a more dominant form for the Dodgers’ bullpen.
As Tanner Scott’s struggles highlight the challenges even skilled pitchers face maintaining success, the coming seasons will test his resilience and adaptability. The Dodgers, relying on his potential, will watch closely to see if developments in his command and approach can restore the once-feared reliever’s impact on the game.
When Tanner Scott allowed contact, where was it more damaging? Well, yes, right down the middle.https://t.co/j1CSn7CLfv pic.twitter.com/0erChqL8jc
— Mike Petriello (@mike_petriello) February 2, 2026
