As the Cincinnati Reds prepare for the 2026 Major League Baseball season, much of their potential success hinges on the development of pitcher Chase Burns. Coming off a playoff appearance in 2025, the Reds are building around a young roster and strong farm system, aiming to compete in a challenging National League environment. Burns’ emergence as a frontline starter could be the key to pushing the Reds deeper into postseason contention.
The Path Chase Burns Took to Reach the Major Leagues
Selected in the first round of the 2024 MLB Draft, Chase Burns quickly built a reputation as one of college baseball’s most dynamic pitchers. After spending his first two collegiate seasons at Tennessee, Burns transferred to Wake Forest, where he dominated during his junior year. He logged 100 innings with an impressive 2.70 ERA and achieved a Wake Forest single-season record of 191 strikeouts.
Burns’ strikeout rate was extraordinary, leading the nation with 48.8%, while maintaining excellent control with only a 7.7% walk rate. Scouts had long praised his potential before the draft, and his 2024 collegiate stats only solidified expectations.
In 2025, Burns continued his rapid ascent through professional baseball. Across High-A, Double-A, and Triple-A levels, he pitched 66 innings with a remarkable 1.77 ERA, striking out 89 batters and holding opponents to a mere .167 batting average. His WHIP of 0.77 during this span reflected exceptional command and dominance over hitters.
Early Major League Experiences and Performance
Burns debuted in the majors on June 24, 2025, facing the New York Yankees. He made an immediate impression by striking out the first five batters he faced—a debut feat unmatched in the Expansion Era since 1961. Over 13 games (eight starts), Burns pitched 43.1 innings and posted a 4.57 ERA alongside a 1.4 fWAR.
While his ERA might suggest uneven results, advanced metrics indicate stronger performance. Opponents benefited from an unusually high .360 BABIP against Burns, while his expected ERA (xERA) was a lower 3.46 and expected FIP (xFIP) stood at 2.68. These numbers hint at underlying effectiveness beyond the surface stats.
Burns struck out opposing hitters 35.6% of the time, tallying 67 strikeouts with a low walk rate of only 8.5%, resulting in an excellent 27.1% strikeout-to-walk ratio. This level of control and strikeout ability bodes well for his development into a top-level starter.
Key Elements of Burns’ Pitching Arsenal
Burns’ success is largely attributed to his velocity and pitch mix, starting with an elite fastball. In the 2025 season, his four-seam fastball averaged 98.7 mph, placing him in the 97th percentile among qualified pitchers. This pitch featured a vertical break of 18.1 inches, inducing swings and misses at a 25.2% clip, which is notable compared to Tarik Skubal’s 28.7% whiff rate on his four-seamer.
The four-seam fastball accounted for 57.6% of Burns’ pitches and generated significant run value, contributing a 4 RVAL. Complementing that was his slider, thrown 33.8% of the time, against which hitters batted just .197 and whiffed 43.9% of the time. The slider also limited opponents to a low expected weighted on-base average (xWOBA) of .234.
Burns’ secondary offerings include a changeup (5.6%), curveball (1.7%), and sinker (1.0%), though these were not used enough in 2025 to fully assess their impact. His pitch arsenal suggests untapped potential that could help him refine his game further.
Prospects for the 2026 Season and Beyond
The Cincinnati Reds stand to gain tremendously if Chase Burns fulfills his high-ceiling potential in 2026. Alongside established starters like Hunter Greene and Andrew Abbott, a breakout by Burns would deepen a promising rotation, potentially transforming the Reds into one of the top teams in the National League.
While expectations remain tempered, even if Burns replicates his 2025 performance, the Reds would still be in a strong position to contend. His continued growth and consistency could be the difference-maker for a club eager to build on its recent playoff appearance.
Ultimately, the Reds’ 2026 outlook seems tied closely to Burns’ ability to maintain his electric arm and command. His development will be a focal point for the team and fans hoping for a competitive season.
“He rocketed through the minor leagues, where he pitched to a 1.77 ERA in 66.0 innings split across High-A, Double-A, and Triple-A.” – Analyst
“He managed to strike out the first five batters he faced, the most by any pitcher in their debut in the Expansion Era (since 1961).” – Commentator
“It’s entirely possible that Burns doesn’t reach his ace potential in 2026, and that’s okay! All he need to do is continue pitching at the level he did in 2025, and the Reds will be in a great spot to make another playoff run.” – Insider
