The Minnesota Twins’ starting pitching plans for 2026 took a drastic turn on Tuesday when it was revealed that Pablo López has a partially torn UCL in his pitching elbow and may miss the entire season if he opts for Tommy John surgery. This unexpected injury leaves the Twins scrambling to fill the void in their rotation as López seeks a second medical opinion but is likely facing surgery.
With López sidelined, Joe Ryan is expected to step up as the team’s ace, followed by Bailey Ober. Beyond those two, the Twins face uncertainty and will rely heavily on their up-and-coming pitchers to secure starting rotation roles. Among those young arms, Zebby Matthews stands out as a key candidate to take on a significant role in 2026.
Zebby Matthews’ Journey and Potential Role
Matthews showed promise in his first full major league season, finishing with a 5-6 record and a 5.56 ERA. Despite some struggles in the numbers, there were positive signs that caught the attention of former Twins reliever Danny Coulombe, who suggested Matthews could one day become a front-line starter.
Though that might be an ambitious expectation after just a season and a half of service time, Matthews’ development and performance last year position him as a potential key figure in the Twins’ rotation going forward. The injury to López accelerates that possibility as Matthews may be called upon to fill a pivotal spot.
The Legacy of “Big Spot” in Twins History
For longtime Twins fans, the phrase “big spot” recalls Scott Baker, a pitcher who earned the nickname “Big Spot Scott” during the late 2000s. Though not without controversy—Baker’s role was shaped by the Twins’ “pitch to contact” approach under Ron Gardenhire and pitching coach Rick Anderson—he provided a vital innings-eating presence in the rotation, a role the Twins now hope someone like Matthews can assume.
Baker’s trajectory saw him begin as a call-up in 2005, going 3-3 with a 3.35 ERA. His initial spot starts in 2006 showed inconsistency, but by 2007 he secured a full-time role. After Johan Santana was traded in 2008, Baker was thrust into the top spot and became the team’s ace out of necessity. Over five seasons from 2007 to 2011, Baker started 134 games, posting a 55-37 record with a 3.98 ERA and regularly pitching over 160 innings, exemplifying durability and effectiveness despite middling strikeout numbers.
Comparing Matthews to Baker’s Blueprint
Matthews’ early career has presented challenges similar to Baker’s, with a 6-10 record and a 5.92 ERA across 25 starts. He has also struggled with allowing hard contact, holding a 39.9% hard-hit rate and a .478 expected slugging rate, both above major league norms. However, gradual improvements hint at a pitcher growing into his role.
Data from Baseball Savant highlights notable gains for Matthews in key metrics such as chase rate, whiff rate, and strikeout rate compared to his initial major league trial late in the 2024 season. His control is promising, with a walk rate below league average and a respectable strikeout rate. Unlike the “pitch to contact” Bakers’ era, Matthews has exhibited increased fastball velocity, rising from 94.9 mph to 96.2 mph in the past season, enhancing his overall pitching arsenal.
Further support for Matthews’ potential comes from his fielding-independent pitching (FIP) statistic, which stood at 3.79 last season—almost two runs lower than his actual ERA of 5.56—indicating better underlying performance than results suggest.
Health and Opportunity Shape Matthews’ 2026 Outlook
A significant concern for Matthews has been his durability. He missed several weeks last June due to a shoulder strain, which curtailed his innings total. Remaining healthy will be vital if Matthews is to develop further and fulfill a role similar to Baker’s, eating innings and stabilizing the rotation.
With López’s injury amplifying the need for dependable starters, Matthews is poised to earn either the third or fourth spot in the Twins’ 2026 rotation. While trade acquisitions like Taj Bradley and Mick Abel offer competitive alternatives, Matthews’ longer tenure in the organization and accumulated experience could provide him with an edge in earning the team’s trust.
Filling López’s Void: What’s Next for the Twins
The Twins are now without their best performing starter in López, who was enjoying a 5-4 record with a 2.74 ERA before suffering a teres major strain last June. His absence leaves a crucial gap that the team must address through internal options or future acquisitions.
Zebby Matthews stands as the most probable candidate to fill this vacancy. Unless the Twins execute a major signing or trade, Matthews will be thrust into a prominent role during his second full major league season. His continued growth and ability to stay healthy will be key factors in whether he can replicate the role once filled by Scott Baker and help the Twins remain competitive in the upcoming season.
“He could become a future ace.” ?Danny Coulombe, Former Twins Reliever
