Heston Kjerstad is attempting to return to Major League Baseball after his previous two seasons were cut short by serious health issues and injuries, setting his sights on a spot with the Baltimore Orioles’ 2026 roster. Despite his determination, the team’s current construction and depth chart suggest that Kjerstad faces significant hurdles to earning regular playing time in Baltimore.
The Orioles have built their roster assuming Kjerstad would not factor into their immediate plans, due in part to his recent unavailability. The outfield depth already includes four players ahead of him, excluding the dedicated backup centerfielder role, a position Kjerstad is unlikely to fill. This context leaves him largely blocked from active roster participation without unexpected circumstances.
Potential Routes for Kjerstad to Make the Opening Day Roster
Outperforming Dylan Beavers During Spring Training
Among the Orioles’ outfield roster, Dylan Beavers is the primary candidate Kjerstad could realistically replace. Other outfielders—O’Neill and Ward—carry contracts that make them untouchable, and Cowser is firmly established as the everyday centerfielder. Beavers, as the top outfield prospect for Baltimore, enters the new season following a promising MLB debut, making it a difficult challenge for Kjerstad to surpass him.
For Kjerstad to usurp Beavers, he would need to generate exceptional results in spring training that go beyond merely better statistics. This would likely require a notable improvement in his hitting style—such as increased pull power and faster bat speed—different from his previous seasons. Additionally, Beavers would need to show signs of decline. Despite the odds against it, this scenario—while improbable—remains the only performance-based path for Kjerstad onto the Orioles’ opening day roster.
Opportunity Through Trades Involving Backup First Basemen
The second viable scenario revolves around trades that involve Ryan Mountcastle and Coby Mayo, both of whom currently serve as backup first basemen. Each is regarded as overqualified for a bench role behind a durable starter like Alonso. Consequently, Baltimore might view Mountcastle and Mayo more as valuable trade assets capable of filling needs elsewhere rather than bench players.
Kjerstad, whose trade value has diminished, could fill the backup first baseman role if those trades happen, allowing him to contribute as a part-time designated hitter and corner outfielder when needed. This positioning would give him limited but meaningful opportunities on the major league roster. However, with the season’s start approaching and both Mountcastle and Mayo still on the roster, this pathway appears unlikely. Both players currently outperform Kjerstad at first base, which reduces his chances of taking over their roles unless a trade materializes.
Likelihood of Kjerstad Starting in Triple-A
Outside these two possibilities, no other realistic options exist for Kjerstad to crack the Orioles’ 2026 roster without injuries to other players. Given these obstacles, the most plausible outcome is that he begins the year in Triple-A, serving as organizational depth. He will likely await an opportunity created by roster changes or injuries to make his way back onto the major league field.
Heston Kjerstad’s case highlights the challenges faced by players returning from significant injuries when competing against established and promising talent on a well-stocked team like Baltimore. His progress in spring training and the Orioles’ management decisions on key roster moves in the coming weeks will ultimately determine if he slips onto the big league roster or remains in the minors this season.
