Chicago Cubs outfield prospect Matt Shaw has experienced a drop in his average draft position (ADP) in fantasy baseball due to recent team dynamics and competition for playing time. Despite these setbacks, analysts continue to highlight the possibility of a significant 2026 breakout for Shaw, identifying his emerging skills as an underappreciated asset in upcoming seasons.
Shaw’s Strong Foundation Through Collegiate and Minor League Success
Matt Shaw’s professional baseball career is rooted in an impressive three-year tenure at the University of Maryland, where he posted a .320 batting average, scored 172 runs, and recorded 53 home runs alongside 166 RBIs and 37 stolen bases across 693 at-bats. These outstanding statistics led the Cubs to select him 13th overall in the 2023 MLB June Amateur Draft.
In his first minor league season in 2023, Shaw quickly demonstrated his offensive versatility by hitting .357 over 38 games spanning three minor league levels. He scored 27 runs, launched eight home runs, drove in 28 RBIs, and swiped 15 bases, which signaled his all-around potential. He carried this momentum into 2024, splitting his time between Double-A and Triple-A. At Double-A, Shaw maintained a solid .279 batting average with 60 runs, 14 home runs, 50 RBIs, and 25 stolen bases in 312 at-bats, while his Triple-A performance included a .298 average with 18 runs, seven home runs, 21 RBIs, and six stolen bases across 131 at-bats.
Debut Season Highlights Struggles and Growth at the Major League Level
Shaw entered the 2025 season as part of the Cubs’ opening day roster but faced difficulties adjusting to major league pitching initially. Over his first 18 games, he recorded only 10 hits in 58 at-bats, tallying 11 runs, one home run, and three RBIs with a strikeout rate exceeding 26%. Due to this rough start, Shaw was sent back to Triple-A, where he rebounded by batting .286, scoring 22 runs, and hitting six home runs along with 14 RBIs and five stolen bases in 91 at-bats, striking an improved balance between walks and strikeouts.
Upon his promotion back to the majors, Shaw took on a more prominent role, starting 88 of the final 108 games for the Cubs. He concluded the season with a .236 batting average, 46 runs, 12 home runs, 41 RBIs, and 17 stolen bases over 335 at-bats. His performance showed considerable splits, as hitting against right-handed pitchers proved more challenging, reflected in a .218 average and seven home runs over 293 at-bats. While Shaw’s strikeout and walk rates were near league norms at 21.5% and 8.7% respectively, his exit velocity averaged 84.9 mph and his hard-hit rate was only 29.4%, both below expected benchmarks. Additionally, his elevated infield fly ball rate of 13.3% suggested timing inconsistencies at the plate.
Organizational Changes and Competition Influence Shaw’s Role and Outlook
The Cubs’ acquisition of veteran infielder Alex Bregman has intensified competition within the lineup, contributing to a decline in Shaw’s ADP in fantasy baseball markets. Additionally, the signing of Michael Conforto to a minor league deal has introduced further uncertainty about Shaw’s chances for a designated hitter role. Despite these challenges, Shaw still appears to have avenues to secure regular at-bats, potentially through sharing playing time at first base or leveraging his versatility at second base and shortstop. Analysts at AvandaTimes point out that Shaw’s well-rounded skills, barring his lower hard-hit and velocity metrics, support the possibility of a stronger presence in the 2026 season.
Projected Performance Indicates Potential for Significant Improvement in 2026
Looking ahead to 2026, forecasts suggest Matt Shaw could improve to a .251 batting average across roughly 427 at-bats, contributing 65 runs, 16 home runs, 59 RBIs, and 21 stolen bases. Should his opportunities extend to 550 at-bats, his combination of speed and power could place him among the breakout stars in fantasy baseball the following year.
“His balanced skill set, excluding the hard-hit and exit velocity metrics, positions him for a potential ascent in the 2026 fantasy rankings.” ?AvandaTimes Analyst
