Kyle Larson, driving for Hendrick Motorsports, began the 2026 NASCAR Cup Series season as the top contender to defend his 2025 championship, a feat that hasn’t been accomplished since seven-time champion Jimmie Johnson secured five consecutive titles from 2006 through 2010. This season marks the return of a postseason format similar to the one used between 2004 and 2013, replacing the knockout “win and in” structure that governed the sport from 2014 to 2025.
While Larson’s 2025 championship victory would have stood even if the new format had been applied then, the altered rules will likely force drivers to adapt their strategies throughout the year.
After Opening Race, Denny Hamlin Overtakes Larson as Betting Favorite
Following just one race in 2026, the leaderboard of championship favorites has changed unexpectedly. DraftKings Sportsbook now positions Joe Gibbs Racing’s Denny Hamlin as the new favorite at +370 odds, narrowly edging out Larson, who holds +400 odds. This is surprising given that Larson finished 16th in the Daytona 500, the season opener at the Daytona superspeedway, while Hamlin came in 31st. Currently, Larson shares 14th place in the season standings, whereas Hamlin trails in 33rd.
Despite Hamlin being 19 points below the provisional playoff cut line, which lies between 16th place Noah Gragson and 17th place Michael McDowell, the betting shift suggests confidence remains in his chances. Larson maintains a slim margin of three points above the cutoff.
Upcoming Races and Championship Outlook
The next event at Atlanta Motor Speedway—recently renamed EchoPark Speedway—is also a superspeedway race, making predictions difficult at this stage. Superspeedways represent only three of the 24 remaining regular season races, adding further unpredictability to the championship landscape. Meanwhile, Daytona 500 winner and points leader Tyler Reddick is positioned eighth in the odds to claim this year’s title, with +1400 odds.
Fans can watch the Autotrader 400 live on Fox this Sunday, February 22, at 3:00 p.m. ET from EchoPark Speedway. The race broadcast is also available via a FuboTV free trial.
Impact of the New Format and Future Expectations
This change in NASCAR’s postseason format and the early shift in favorites highlight a dynamic start to the season, where traditional expectations are being challenged. Larson’s status as the Kyle Larson NASCAR favorite has adjusted quickly, illustrating both the competitive depth in the field and the influence of race results under the revised rules. As drivers and teams recalibrate their approaches, the evolving points system will continue to shape the championship battle over the coming months.
“Larson notably would have won the 2025 championship even if the new 2026 format had been in place, although it goes without saying that drivers would have been forced to alter their season-long approach had the rules been different.” ?Anonymous Analyst
