Shane Van Gisbergen has had an outstanding 2025 NASCAR season, leveraging his Australian racing background to win five out of six road course races. Yet, the one track where he has not secured a victory is the DuraMax Texas Grand Prix at Circuit of the Americas (COTA) in Austin, where he aims to break through this weekend. This New Zealander made an immediate impact upon entering NASCAR as a rookie in 2023, winning the inaugural Chicago Street Race and bringing a strong endurance racing pedigree with multiple Australian Supercar championships and notable finishes at the 24 Hours of Daytona and Bathurst 12 Hour.
Challenges at COTA: Why Van Gisbergen Has Struggled to Win
Despite his road course success, Van Gisbergen has yet to translate that into a win at COTA. He acknowledges the challenges the circuit presents and insists it is not for lack of effort.
“I like the place; I just haven’t managed to put a whole race together,”
he admitted.
“Every race I’ve done here in the NASCAR series I’ve been reasonably quick, but for one reason or another, I haven’t managed to get it done.”
His past performances underline the difficulty: he finished 22nd in last year’s Cup Series race and 20th in 2024. In the O’Reilly Auto Parts Series, despite starting second in 2024, he ended up 27th. COTA remains the single road course that has eluded him.
Understanding the Unique Nature of Racing at COTA
Van Gisbergen points out that the track’s peculiarities add layers of difficulty, particularly the reduced grip off the racing line that tempts drivers to push beyond the limits to maintain traction. The notably steep hill into Turn 1 further complicates this, often causing unpredictable moments during the race. He will compete in the O’Reilly Auto Parts Series Focused Health 250 on Saturday, hoping a strong result will carry momentum into Sunday’s main event. He qualified second, just behind polesitter Connor Zilisch, last season’s winner in that series at COTA. Many experts view Zilisch and Van Gisbergen as the frontrunners to vie for victory this weekend.
The Top Contenders and Odds for Victory at COTA
Heading into the weekend, Van Gisbergen is the betting favorite at +120 odds according to DraftKings, with Connor Zilisch trailing at +320. Christopher Bell, last year’s winner, is also in contention at +900. A win for Van Gisbergen would be a significant milestone, tying him with Chase Elliott for third place in NASCAR history with seven road course wins. His current victories include two at Chicago and one each at Mexico City, the Charlotte Roval, Sonoma, and Watkins Glen.
Legendary drivers such as Tony Stewart and Jeff Gordon have eight and nine road course wins respectively, and even with a relatively quieter year compared to 2025, Van Gisbergen has the potential to challenge these longstanding records.
How NASCAR’s Playoff Format Influences Race Strategy at COTA
This season marks the return of the Chase playoff format in NASCAR, placing greater importance on accumulating points instead of solely aiming for race wins. Van Gisbergen explained that drivers may alter their tactics by extending runs or skipping pit stops to gain extra stage points, a strategy especially relevant on a track like COTA where time to respond is limited.
“It’s going to change how drivers try to flip stages instead of going into the pits,”
he said.
“Especially with this track, it changes the dynamic because you don’t have a lot of time to get close to the leader to decide whether you pit or not.”
The Impact of COTA’s Shortened Layout on Competition
For the second year, the NASCAR races at COTA will use a 2.4-mile layout rather than the full 3.41-mile circuit. This modification was introduced last year to keep fans more engaged by increasing the frequency with which cars pass the central viewing areas. Justin Allgaier, a seasoned driver and 2024 O’Reilly Auto Parts Series champion, regards the change as a “necessary evil.”
“As a driver, when you’re taking out high-speed sections … if you tell me that I can go faster, I’ll always take that option,”
Allgaier said.
“The area that we cut out wasn’t really great for a viewer to watch from, so we’re able to keep our fans tight to the central hub.”
He recognized that removing the straight after Turn 11 was disappointing but understood the rationale.
“It adds another element to the race,”
he added.
“It exploits areas where the drivers are their own worst enemy, and drivers will take every advantage to be as fast as they can.”
With more experience on the shorter circuit this year, Allgaier anticipates fewer chaotic moments when the track narrows through Turns 6A and 6B.
Looking Ahead: Will Van Gisbergen Overcome COTA This Weekend?
This weekend presents an opportunity for Shane Van Gisbergen to finally conquer the COTA challenge and further cement his status among NASCAR’s road course elite. A Sunday victory would not only bring him closer to historic achievements but also close the gap on the singular road course defeat in his career. The NASCAR Cup Series race starts at 2:30 p.m. Sunday and will be broadcast on FOX, where fans will watch closely to see if Van Gisbergen can claim the elusive win.
