Stephen Curry’s prospects of remaining the NBA’s top three-point leader this season have sharply declined due to a right knee injury that is expected to keep him out until at least March 2nd. After playing only 39 of the Golden State Warriors’ 56 games so far, the injury significantly disrupts his chances to maintain his current pace of 4.49 three-pointers made per game, casting uncertainty over his ability to reclaim the lead in this category.
Curry’s Time Missed Versus Impact on Three-Point Totals
With 17 games already missed this season and at least eight more to come due to the knee injury, Curry’s absence has a pronounced effect on his overall three-point numbers. Missing games at his current average means losing roughly 4.5 made three-pointers each contest he sits out. The Warriors still have about 26 games left, but even if Curry returns promptly and stays fully healthy, the lost opportunities during this critical period will weigh heavily on his total season output.
Rival Players Are Extending Their Leads
While Curry’s sidelined, key competitors are steadily increasing their three-point tallies. Donovan Mitchell, durable and consistent, has already surpassed Curry with 189 threes made over 53 games. Kon Knueppel leads all players in total threes made this season at 193 over 56 games, reflecting his impressive durability. Luka Doncic and Michael Porter Jr. also remain close behind, maintaining solid three-point averages despite playing more games than Curry.
Season Projections Reveal a Challenging Future for Curry
Based on an 82-game schedule, Curry would theoretically finish with 368 made threes if he sustained his 4.49 per game pace uninterrupted. However, this projection assumes full participation in all remaining matches, which seems unlikely given his injury history and current setback. Meanwhile, Mitchell projects to 292 and Porter Jr. to 290 made threes, with both players showing stronger durability and steadier game appearances. The discrepancy between Curry’s injury risk and his rivals’ durability raises serious questions about his ability to hold onto the top spot.
Recent Performance Patterns Indicate Struggles Preceding Injury
Beyond the injury, Curry’s recent on-court performance signals challenges. Over his last 10 games, his three-point shooting percentage dipped to 37.8%, below his season average of 39.1%. Moreover, he has averaged fewer minutes—just 28.9 per game—suggesting Golden State had already begun managing his minutes carefully. In his last five outings, the Warriors have posted a modest 2-3 record, with Curry averaging 26 points on 40.4% from three-point range. The team’s net performance with him on the floor has trended negatively, as reflected by a minus 4.4 plus-minus rating during this span.
Historical Durability Has Been Key to Curry’s Leadership
Stephen Curry’s prior seasons as the league leader in three-pointers made show he typically sustains his elite numbers by playing a majority of the regular season. In 2024, he averaged 4.82 threes per game over 74 games; in 2023, 4.88 per game across 56 games; and his remarkable 2021 campaign featured 5.35 threes per game in 63 games. The common theme is durability, with Curry usually participating in 60 to 75 games during his top performances. This season, the threat to that durability is apparent, with his current trajectory pointing to fewer games played, undermining his chances to dominate the three-point ranking once again.
Market Odds Favor Competitors Over Curry
The betting market currently places the odds of Curry finishing as the three-point leader at approximately 36 cents, down from an initial 45 cents. This implies about a 36% probability, which industry experts argue is too generous given his ongoing injury and competition. Donovan Mitchell’s steady 3.57 threes per game over 53 games and Knueppel’s durability and consistency with 3.45 threes per game across 56 contests suggest stronger contenders. SportsGrid’s analysis recommends fading Curry at any value above 20 cents due to the combination of injury disruptions and formidable competitors closing the gap.
“I’m fading Curry at any price above 20 cents. The combination of injury concerns, missed games, and legitimate competition makes this a clear No play. The market hasn’t fully adjusted to the reality that the three-point king’s crown is slipping away.” – Danny Mogollon, Host and Writer
Implications for the NBA Three-Point Race Moving Forward
Curry’s injury and the resulting impact on his playing time mark a pivotal moment in the NBA’s three-point shooting race. If he is unable to return swiftly or maintain his historical output, others like Donovan Mitchell and Kon Knueppel are poised to seize the crown. This season likely signals a shift in the hierarchy of three-point leaders, prompted not only by Curry’s physical setbacks but also by the durability and consistency of his challengers. Moving forward, it will be crucial to monitor Curry’s recovery progress and how effectively Golden State manages his minutes, as these factors will determine whether he can mount a late-season surge or cede the title entirely.
