On Saturday night, the Golden State Warriors faced an unexpected setback after celebrating Gui Santos’ new contract extension. Santos, the 55th pick in the 2022 NBA Draft, signed a three-year, $15 million deal, but hours later, the Warriors were dominated by the Los Angeles Lakers, losing 129–101. The defeat has raised questions about the potential reshuffling of the Warriors’ starting lineup, especially concerning Draymond Green’s role.
Potential Changes in the Warriors’ Starting Lineup
The recent contract extension for Gui Santos puts the Warriors in a challenging position regarding their starting lineup. As the team works toward full health, either Santos or veteran Draymond Green may see reduced minutes in the opening five. Stephen Curry, Moses Moody, Kristaps Porzingis, and either De’Anthony Melton or Brandin Podziemski are expected to hold starting roles, but Santos’ recent performances during Curry’s injury absence have sparked debate.
Over the last 10 games, Santos, a Brazilian forward, has been delivering impressive numbers with averages of 15.1 points, 5.7 rebounds, and 4.0 assists. Conversely, Green, despite his reputation, struggled notably against the Lakers, playing 24 minutes with a -30 plus-minus rating. His overall stats for this period have dropped to 8.4 points, 5.5 rebounds, and 4.8 assists, with inefficient shooting and over two turnovers per game.
Statistically, the Warriors perform better with Santos on the court. The offensive rating with Santos stands at 114.5 and defensive rating at 114.1, both roughly league average. Without him, the offense plummets to 100.8—closer to the league’s bottom—while defense slips below average at 112.6. Meanwhile, Green’s presence on court corresponds with an alarming offensive rating of 96.6, the worst in the league, and a poor defensive rating of 117.5. When Green moves to the bench, the offense surges to a potential NBA-best 120.8 rating.
Statistical Comparison Favors Gui Santos
Head coach Steve Kerr has noted that Green’s best contributions come when playing alongside Stephen Curry, a sentiment mirrored in the numbers. The Curry-Green pairing records a strong offensive rating of 118.0 and a defensive rating of 113.6, resulting in a +4.4 net rating. Santos also shows promise in similar lineups, producing a 112.2 offensive rating and 109.3 defensive rating, yielding a +2.9 net rating, indicating that a cleaner offense and tighter defense could be possible.
Diving deeper into unit combinations reveals contrasting strengths. The four-man unit of Curry, Podziemski, Moody, and Green achieves a 110.4 offensive rating and a solid 107.2 defensive rating (+3.2 net rating). Replacing Green with Santos dips offensive efficiency to 102.8 but dramatically improves defense with an outstanding 97.0 rating, showcasing Santos’ defensive potential.
Adding Kristaps Porziņģis is expected to elevate both ends further. The 7-foot-2 center promises to bolster rim protection while providing offensive versatility. Pairing him with Curry and either Green or Santos could create a balance of scoring and defense that the Warriors have lacked this season. Such lineups may offer improved shot creation and a pathway to elite defensive performance.
Evaluating the Future: Balancing Veteran Experience and Emerging Talent
While benching an established veteran like Draymond Green is a difficult decision, experimentation is necessary for the Warriors’ future success. Developing Gui Santos through increased playing time aligns with the team’s long-term goals, while Green shifting to the second unit could optimize his leadership and defensive skills alongside players like Al Horford, De’Anthony Melton, Gary Payton II, and Will Richard.
Stephen Curry, sidelined since January 30 with a knee injury, is scheduled for a reassessment, with a return still pending. Kristaps Porziņģis is expected to rejoin the lineup soon after missing four games due to illness, possibly for Monday’s game versus the L.A. Clippers. Once healthy, the Warriors might finally unveil lineups featuring Curry, Podziemski, Moody, Santos, and Porziņģis, providing a critical test of the team’s depth and strategic options.
