As of now, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander of the Oklahoma City Thunder and Nikola Jokic from the Denver Nuggets are widely regarded as the top contenders for the 2026 NBA Most Valuable Player award. The latest analysis suggests that Gilgeous-Alexander holds a significant advantage over Jokic largely due to his superior defensive performance this season.
Sam Vecenie of The Athletic pointed out a key distinction on the recent Game Theory Podcast, emphasizing that Jokic’s shortcomings on defense, compared to Gilgeous-Alexander’s consistent excellence, are a major factor shaping the MVP debate.
Comparing Defensive Impact: Gilgeous-Alexander vs. Nikola Jokic
While Jokic is often praised for his offensive skills, the defensive statistics of the two players paint very different pictures. Jokic has allowed opponents to shoot at a high 47.8 percent rate and holds a defensive rating of 114.6, alongside a low defensive win share of 0.090. Moreover, he is the only center in the league giving up more than 36.3 points per game in the paint among players with at least 30 games played.
In contrast, Gilgeous-Alexander is restricting opponents to just 43.0 percent shooting, which ranks ninth-best among players with 40 or more games this season. His defensive rating stands at an elite 105.2, and he leads the entire league with a defensive win share of 0.176. These numbers highlight his impact as a formidable defender.
Offensively, Gilgeous-Alexander is also shining brightly, currently averaging 31.6 points per game—second only to Luka Doncic—while Jokic ranks fifth with 28.8 points per game. Taken together, these stats support the argument that Gilgeous-Alexander is emerging as one of the premier two-way players in the NBA and bolstering his case as the MVP frontrunner.
Potential Obstacles for Jokic’s MVP Chances Amid Availability Rules
Beyond on-court performance, Jokic’s pursuit of MVP could face complications due to the NBA’s newly implemented “65-game rule” introduced before the 2023-24 season. This regulation requires players to participate in at least 65 games, or 18 if their team reaches the NBA Cup Final, to remain eligible for various end-of-season awards including MVP.
Jokic has already missed 16 games this season, and with 18 games left on Denver’s schedule, missing additional time could disqualify him from contention. This eligibility rule threatens to remove Jokic from the MVP race regardless of his play level, complicating his campaign and opening the door further for Gilgeous-Alexander.
Implications for the MVP Race Going Forward
Gilgeous-Alexander’s strong two-way play and consistency have positioned him favorably in a competitive MVP battle, particularly as defensive contributions gain more attention in the evaluation process. Meanwhile, Jokic’s future in the race is becoming uncertain due to both defensive liabilities and the strict game minimum requirement.
If Gilgeous-Alexander maintains his performance, his blend of scoring and defensive prowess could solidify him as a leading candidate for the 2026 MVP award, potentially marking a significant moment in his career and the Oklahoma City Thunder’s rise in the league.
