The upcoming Super Bowl 60 between the Seattle Seahawks and New England Patriots presents one of the biggest betting opportunities of the year, with Sam Darnold, the Seahawks quarterback, currently favored to earn the Super Bowl MVP title. DraftKings lists Darnold at +120 odds to win the award, ahead of Patriots quarterback Drake Maye, who stands at +240. This matchup has generated intense anticipation among fans and bettors alike, focusing on who will stand out on the biggest stage in American football.
Insights into Super Bowl MVP Betting Trends
The MVP award typically favors quarterbacks, and recent history reflects this trend. Despite this, non-quarterback players have claimed the MVP honor three times in the past decade, offering potential longshot bets for those willing to look beyond signal callers. CBS Sports’ R.J. White, a seasoned sports gambling and fantasy sports editor, brings extensive experience to the analysis of these odds. White boasts a strong track record in NFL picks against the spread from 2017 to 2024, as well as an impressive record in over/under bets.
Front-Runners and Value Picks for Super Bowl MVP
The current odds from DraftKings highlight three key candidates for Super Bowl 60 MVP:
- Sam Darnold, Seahawks quarterback (+120) – the leading favorite
- Mack Hollins, Patriots wide receiver (+18000) – the best longshot option
- DeMarcus Lawrence, Seahawks linebacker (+9000) – notable defensive underdog
Sam Darnold: The Safe and Smart MVP Choice
“When it comes to taking a player to win Super Bowl MVP, the safest play is to back a quarterback,”
said R.J. White.
“Fourteen of the last 19 Super Bowl MVPs have been quarterbacks, with the position winning the award 34 times overall versus eight times for receivers, seven times for running backs and 10 times for any defensive player. With the Seahawks being huge favorites on the money line, taking Darnold to win Super Bowl MVP presents the best value on the board by getting plus odds for them winning and the award going to the most likely candidate.”
Darnold’s role as the Seahawks’ offensive leader and the team’s favored status underscores why many view him as the top contender for MVP. His potential impact in the game is expected to be decisive, particularly as the quarterback position has historically dominated MVP selections.
Mack Hollins: Longshot with an Emerging Role
Patriots receiver Mack Hollins offers an intriguing alternative for those seeking a high-reward MVP wager. White explained Hollins’ growing involvement in key matchups this season:
“The Patriots have been criticized for playing an easy schedule this year, but when the tougher opponents have shown up, Hollins has tended to be more involved in the offense,”
White said.
“After a quiet first seven weeks, he caught all seven of his targets for 89 yards in Week 8 against a Browns defense that held Stefon Diggs to 14 yards. He delivered a season-best 106 yards on 10 targets in Week 10 in a close game against the Buccaneers, again outperforming Diggs by a wide margin. He had just 41 yards in Week 15 against the Bills but saw a team-high eight targets in the game while Diggs had four, and then the next week Hollins racked up 69 yards on nine targets in a comeback win over the Ravens, with Diggs leading the team in all receiving categories in that one. Hollins went to IR after that game and returned for the AFC Championship, where he recorded catches of 31 and 20 yards in a game where Maye threw for just 86 yards total.”
“Hollins definitely doesn’t deserve to be among the favorites for the award, but he should be much closer to Stefon Diggs (+5500) considering how much Maye leans on the secondary receiver in big games. And when compared to the other players ahead of Hollins in odds, including guys like Jake Bobo and George Holani who may not make any impact on the box score for Seattle as well as both backup QBs and a number of defensive players, Hollins stands out as the best value pick on the board.”
Hollins’ performance in crucial games makes him a compelling, though unlikely, MVP candidate, especially given his demonstrated ability to produce under pressure despite not being favored.
DeMarcus Lawrence: Defensive Impact Player with Potential
Defensive players rarely win the Super Bowl MVP, with Von Miller being the last to do so a decade ago. However, history shows it is possible, as Malcolm Smith and Dexter Jackson had also won the award this century. White identifies Lawrence as a standout defensive bet among longshots:
“There hasn’t been a defensive player to win Super Bowl MVP since Von Miller 10 years ago, but it happens more than you think and doesn’t necessarily have to be the best defender on the team, with Malcolm Smith and Dexter Jackson taking home the award this century as well,”
White noted.
“While that brings super longshots like Jaylinn Hawkins (+25000) and Drake Thomas (+25000) into play, my favorite defensive pick is Lawrence. He’ll be up against a Patriots offensive line that has struggled to protect Maye during the playoffs, and the quarterback has had a massive issue hanging onto the ball.”
“Lawrence has a sack and forced fumble in three of his last four games, and he’s recorded at least one QB hit in 13 of the last 14 games. With the veteran playing in his first Super Bowl after more than a decade with the Cowboys, he could continue his recent fine form, and if he can score a touchdown after recovering a fumble, which he did twice against the Cardinals earlier this year, he could be in contention for this award in a lower-scoring game. I’d put Lawrence at least as the co-favorite among Seahawks defenders, but he’s slotted behind Ernest Jones and Nick Emmanwori, so he’s my favorite value among the defenders.”
Lawrence’s ability to disrupt the Patriots’ offense and create turnovers could make him a pivotal figure in the game, lending support to his candidacy for MVP despite his defensive position.
Preparing for the Big Game: Additional Super Bowl Predictions
Bettors and fans looking for more in-depth Super Bowl 60 insights can explore further predictions and analyses from trusted experts and betting models. SportsLine’s Projection Model has demonstrated strong predictive accuracy by simulating games thousands of times, proving reliable for recent NFL picks. This level of analysis offers bettors grounded perspectives and strategies heading into one of football’s most high-stakes events.
