As the clock runs down on February 8, fans worldwide will find out whether a Seattle Seahawk or New England Patriot earns the Super Bowl LX MVP title. Given that quarterbacks have secured this honor in 34 of the past 59 Super Bowls, and seven times in the last ten, Sam Darnold and Drake Maye stand out as the most likely Super Bowl MVP contenders.
Despite the dominance of quarterbacks, the last non-QB to claim the MVP award was Cooper Kupp, now a Seattle wide receiver, who won it for Super Bowl LVI after an impressive 8-catch, 92-yard, two-touchdown game for the Los Angeles Rams against the Cincinnati Bengals. However, Kupp’s chances this year are slim, estimated at only 1%.
Forecasts from Kalshi Highlight Top MVP Candidates
Kalshi’s market for the Super Bowl MVP lists close to 80 players, but clear frontrunners have emerged. Sam Darnold leads with a 45% probability, followed by Drake Maye at 27%. Other notable players include Jaxon Smith-Njigba at 15% and Kenneth Walker III holding 9%. The rest of the field falls far behind, all with less than 3% chances each.
Additional contenders with smaller probabilities include Rhamondre Stevenson at 3%, Rashid Shaheed and Stefon Diggs both at 2%, and Leonard Williams along with Christian Gonzalez each at 1%.
Understanding How Kalshi’s MVP Market Operates
Unlike traditional sports betting, Kalshi is not a sportsbook but a platform where users trade contracts based on event outcomes like the Super Bowl MVP. Instead of fixed odds by bookmakers, prices on Kalshi develop according to market demand and trends, with contracts settling at either $0 or $1 depending on the final result.
For example, with Sam Darnold’s 45% likelihood of winning, a $1 contract on him currently costs $0.45 plus fees. If Darnold wins MVP, those contracts pay out $1 each. Purchasing 100 such contracts would yield $100, resulting in a $53 profit after initial investment, illustrating the market-driven nature of Kalshi trading.
Reminder on Using Kalshi’s Promo Offer
New users can receive a $10 bonus by applying a Kalshi promo code, provided they are at least 18 years old, reside in a state where Kalshi operates legally, and complete verification steps. Though this offer may be appealing, potential traders should be aware that event contract trading involves risks of substantial losses and is not suitable for all investors. Additionally, prediction markets are restricted in certain jurisdictions.
Additional Sports Betting Insights Ahead of the Big Game
For fans looking beyond the MVP market, other Super Bowl-related wagers include longshot bets with high payouts, promotions from major sportsbooks like DraftKings offering up to $300 in bonuses, and comprehensive guides for legal betting practices, including first-time bettors in Missouri. Kalshi also provides anytime touchdown predictions for Super Bowl LX, adding more layers of excitement and strategy for bettors nationwide.
