The Chicago Cubs’ key pitcher Justin Steele took a significant step toward recovery last week, throwing off a mound for the first time since his UCL revision surgery performed in April 2025. Originally expected to be sidelined for about a year, Steele’s rehabilitation appears to be moving quicker than anticipated, sparking optimism among Cubs supporters as they look ahead to the 2026 season. This update comes after the Cubs reached the postseason last year despite missing Steele early in the campaign due to the injury.
Steele’s Expectations and the Cubs’ Pitching Depth
In an interview with Elise Menaker of Marquee Sports Network, Steele revealed he does not have a set timetable for returning to major league action but expects to face hitters during Spring Training. He highlighted that his recovery has been smooth, with no setbacks, and emphasized,
“he’s not only suffered no setbacks but is ahead of schedule, if anything.”
Fans are hopeful to see Steele pitching again early in next season, contributing to a rotation that otherwise returns intact from 2025.
This stable rotation now includes promising arms like rookie standouts Cade Horton, who finished as runner-up for Rookie of the Year, and newly acquired right-hander Edward Cabrera, traded from the Miami Marlins earlier this month. The Cubs’ pitching staff is further bolstered by established starters Shota Imanaga, Matthew Boyd, Jameson Taillon, and Colin Rea, alongside dependable depth options such as Javier Assad, Jordan Wicks, and Ben Brown.
Managing Steele’s Return Amid a Crowded Rotation
With nine other starters on the 40-man roster, plus potential contributions from top prospect Jaxon Wiggins and non-roster arm Connor Noland, the Cubs have considerable pitching options heading into the new season. This depth may lead the organization to adopt a cautious approach with Steele’s innings limit, as the team balances his recovery with the need to maintain overall rotation health.
Steele acknowledged that Dr. Keith Meister, his surgeon, will likely recommend restrictions on his workload during the season. The Cubs, having added Cabrera and Alex Bregman after falling just short of the NLCS in 2025, have strong playoff ambitions and would prefer Steele to be healthy and well-managed to contribute late in the year. Holding back Steele’s innings early on could ensure he is fresh for a postseason run.
Uncertainty in Rotation Health and Its Impact on Recovery Strategy
Despite the optimism surrounding the Cubs’ pitching staff, durability remains a concern. Key pitchers including Imanaga, Horton, Taillon, and Cabrera spent time on the injured list last season, while Matthew Boyd’s 2025 campaign marked his first with 30 starts since 2018. Should any of these starters face injury setbacks again, there is a risk that the rotation could become thin if Steele’s rehab is too conservative.
Although depth arms like Assad, Brown, and Wicks are capable, the team likely views a fully effective Steele as a more reliable contributor. His performance prior to injury has placed him among baseball’s most elite starters, and his return to full health would strengthen the Cubs’ pitching landscape significantly.
Steele’s Elite Status and the Stakes for Chicago
Since breaking out midway through the 2022 season, Steele has been one of the game’s most efficient pitchers. Among starters with at least 300 innings pitched, only nine have posted lower ERAs, a list filled with top aces such as Paul Skenes, Tarik Skubal, Shohei Ohtani, Chris Sale, Max Fried, and Zack Wheeler. Leaving such talent sidelined any longer than necessary would be a major setback for the Cubs, who aim to challenge the defending NL Central champion Milwaukee Brewers—who eliminated them from the playoffs last fall.
The Cubs will carefully gauge Steele’s rehab progress starting with Spring Training, monitoring roster health and workload management before making definitive plans. Given the rotation’s importance to Chicago’s postseason goals, balancing Steele’s return against the durability of other starters will remain a critical and delicate decision as the 2026 season approaches.
