Throughout much of the 2025 NASCAR Cup Series season, Denny Hamlin appeared poised to break longstanding patterns by emerging as a leading contender for the championship. Competing for Joe Gibbs Racing, Hamlin delivered multiple wins and consistent finishes, placing himself prominently among chief rivals Hendrick Motorsports and Team Penske. However, his title hopes ultimately faltered at the final race of the season at Phoenix Raceway, renewing doubts as the series looks toward 2026.
NASCAR analyst Kevin Redfern recently expressed caution to fans and bettors when considering the veteran driver’s odds for the upcoming championship, signaling that Hamlin’s chances carry notable risks despite his strong resume.
Challenges Facing Hamlin in Pursuit of the 2026 Championship
In 2025, Hamlin reached the checkered flag six times in victory lane, notched 14 top-five finishes, 18 top-10s, and secured five pole positions. Entering the season finale as the favorite, the 45-year-old was ultimately outpaced by Kyle Larson, his former teammate turned rival, who clinched his second Cup Series championship for Hendrick Motorsports with a decisive late-race push. This outcome is a reminder of the recurring theme in Hamlin’s career: exceptional performance in the regular season has not often translated into a championship trophy.
Redfern, speaking to RACERS ODDS, laid out his wary view firmly:
Denny Hamlin’s future right now for the championship is the Grinch bet. You didn’t want to touch that with a 10-foot pole.
Kevin Redfern, NASCAR Insider
While Hamlin’s track record and access to top-tier Joe Gibbs Racing machinery generally suggest a legitimate chance for redemption, Redfern advises bettors to approach with hesitation.
Alternative Contenders Offer More Betting Value in 2026
Rather than focusing on Hamlin as a short-odds favorite, Redfern highlights other drivers further down the odds board who may present more appealing futures bets. He specifically mentions Chase Briscoe and Chase Elliott as offering greater potential at roughly 10-to-1 odds, where risk is balanced by meaningful upside.
He explained:
When it comes to those favorites, I kind of group that group you mentioned there, Andrew, going down to Chase Briscoe and Chase Elliott at 10 to 1,
and added,
I love the value; I love the value in that section. And I think a lot of people who are analyzing futures bets are going to as well.
Kevin Redfern, NASCAR Insider
Redfern’s assessment extends beyond any single driver, cautioning that futures markets tied to dominant teams and established stars often become too compressed to offer sustainable returns. Odds below 10-to-1 leave very little room for error or profit margin, which can challenge even the most reliable favorites.
He remarked:
Anything below 10 to 1 on a future just think about the range of prices where that could go,
adding,
It just can’t get that much more sharp.
Kevin Redfern, NASCAR Insider
Implications for Hamlin and the 2026 NASCAR Championship Landscape
Denny Hamlin remains one of the most skilled and dedicated drivers in the NASCAR garage, yet his recent near-misses create a sense of urgency and caution as the 2026 season approaches. With Kyle Larson and Hendrick Motorsports continuing to set a high competitive bar, alongside emerging contenders steadily closing the gap, the path to another title will demand flawless execution and a bit of fortune.
For bettors, the cautionary stance from experts like Redfern underscores the unstable nature of futures wagers in this championship cycle. Despite Hamlin’s impressive record, the tightening field and short odds mean he carries a considerable risk of falling short again, making alternative bets worthy of consideration as the new season dawns.
"Denny Hamlin's future right now for the championship is the grinch bet." ❌@KevinMRedfern13 explains why to stay away from Hamlin, and who to focus on when betting on the 2026 champion 💸 pic.twitter.com/YbplmwLgeB
— PRN (@PRNlive) February 7, 2026
