The Las Vegas Raiders are expected to use their first overall pick in the 2025 NFL draft to select quarterback Fernando Mendoza, who led Indiana to a historic national championship season. Despite Mendoza’s success, some NFL analysts advocate for the Raiders to trade the No. 1 pick instead of drafting him, arguing that the move could yield greater long-term value.
Analyst Danny Parkins, speaking on First Things First, suggested that Mendoza may not live up to expectations in the NFL due to concerns about his arm strength and consistency. Parkins compared Mendoza to Jared Goff, a player with similar traits who ultimately struggled in the league. He cited the Chicago Bears’ past trade where they exchanged their top draft pick for assets including Caleb Williams, calling it a “legitimate heist.”
“Given that the comp for Mendoza seems to be a Jared Goff type who’s a little faster but a little worse arm. Well, that can miss… Look at what the Bears got when they traded the number one overall pick for the draft rights to Bryce Young,” Parkins said.
“They got a Pro Bowl/All-Pro caliber right tackle. They got a starting corner. They ended up getting the first pick in the draft in Caleb Williams and Luther Burden, who looks like he could be a No. 1 wide receiver. It was a legitimate heist for the Bears.”
Risk Versus Reward: Evaluating Mendoza’s NFL Prospects
Although Mendoza won the Heisman Trophy in 2025 and delivered impressive stats for Indiana with 3,535 passing yards and 41 touchdowns, doubts linger about his transition to the professional level. Analysts highlight his tendency toward negative plays and question whether his arm strength is sufficient to thrive in the NFL, particularly within the Raiders’ system.
Why the Raiders May Stick With Mendoza Despite Trade Suggestions
Despite the compelling argument for trading the first pick, Parkins expressed skepticism that the Raiders will stray from selecting Mendoza. He pointed out that the team’s leadership appears committed to building around the young quarterback, with veteran Tom Brady’s influence possibly shaping their decision.
“If you can put up the rights to Mendoza for the Jets, Steelers, Dolphins or anybody who needs a quarterback to go up and get him, you could get a heist for him,” Parkins said. “But I think this kid is so clearly what they’re going to do, because it seems like Tom Brady would want to mold this kid.”
With the Raiders already invested in Mendoza’s potential, the organization’s choice reflects confidence in his ability to become a franchise cornerstone despite the risks underscored by critics.
Implications of the Draft Decision for the Raiders’ Future
The decision to hold onto or trade the No. 1 pick will significantly impact the Raiders’ trajectory in the coming years. Trading the pick could bring multiple high-caliber players and future assets, potentially reshaping the roster. On the other hand, selecting Mendoza signals faith in his talent to lead the team to success based on his college achievements and physical tools.
As the NFL draft approaches, how the Raiders proceed will determine the team’s strategy and development, with fans and analysts watching closely to see if they follow the path of the Bears’ aggressive trades or commit fully to Mendoza’s promising, yet uncertain, NFL future.
.@DannyParkins believes the Raiders should trade the 1st overall pick đź‘€
“Given how many holes the Raiders have, and given the comp for Mendoza seems to be a Jared Goff type who’s a little faster with a little worse arm… that can miss.” pic.twitter.com/NdNgI2ilWh
— First Things First (@FTFonFS1) February 17, 2026
