The Las Vegas Raiders secured the top pick in the 2026 NFL Draft before their Week 18 matchup and ended the season with a dramatic victory over their division rivals, the Kansas City Chiefs. In the closing seconds, kicker Daniel Carlson delivered a career-long 60-yard field goal, sparking celebration but also highlighting the uncertain future of Carlson with the team as he approaches unrestricted free agency.
After a challenging year for Carlson marked by inconsistency, Las Vegas faces a difficult decision regarding whether to retain him in the coming offseason. General manager John Spytek’s plans remain unclear as the Raiders prepare for critical roster moves ahead.
Introducing the Kicker Value Added (KVA) Metric
Given the scarcity of advanced statistics for evaluating kickers, Adam Fromal of FanSided has developed a new metric called Kicker Value Added (KVA). This innovative measurement aims to quantify a kicker’s actual impact on the game by considering the degree of difficulty and game context rather than treating all attempts equally.
“Instead of treating all makes and misses equally, KVA measures how much value a kicker actually adds (or costs) relative to league expectations from the same distances across the field. A long-distance conversion shouldn’t be weighed the same as a chip shot, and a miss doesn’t carry the same meaning everywhere on the field. As we saw during a 2025 season that featured incredible long-range success, making a 55-yarder this year shouldn’t be treated the same as a kicker drilling a 55-yarder in 1985. KVA captures that difference.”
– Adam Fromal, FanSided Analyst
This metric sets 0.0 as average performance. Positive values indicate a kicker is benefiting their team, while negative scores reflect a net detriment. KVA thus offers a clearer understanding of a kicker’s value beyond raw field goal percentages.
Carlson’s KVA Performance Highlights Challenges in 2025
In the 2025 NFL season, Daniel Carlson amassed a KVA of -1.0249, a figure showing that his kicking actually harmed the Raiders’ prospects more than it helped. Ranking 28th out of 43 qualified kickers, Carlson’s standing raises doubts about whether the team should offer him a new contract.
Meanwhile, several kickers performing better in the KVA rankings are set to become free agents this offseason. Notable players include Harrison Mevis (7.2249), Eddy Pineiro (10.4383), Riley Patterson (7.679), Nick Folk (11.7096), and Brandon Aubrey (6.6509), among others. These kickers offer potentially superior options for the Raiders as they weigh whether to retain Carlson or look elsewhere.
Financial Considerations and Team Priorities
Carlson remains one of the cheaper options on the free-agent market according to Spotrac valuations. This financial reality may tempt the Raiders’ front office to prioritize cost-efficiency over performance and stick with a familiar face in the kicking position. However, the negative KVA score suggests that settling for past familiarity might come at a significant competitive cost.
Although Carlson showed improvement toward the latter part of the season following a difficult stretch, his overall trend has declined since 2022. The Raiders need to consider if relying on him aligns with their long-term ambitions, especially as other roster areas also require attention.
Urgency for the Raiders to Address the Kicking Position
While the kicking spot might not rank as the most urgent priority for Las Vegas, the impending free agency period demands resolution. The KVA analysis strongly indicates that the Silver and Black could benefit from acquiring a more effective kicker, who can provide consistent scoring and help close games more reliably.
How John Spytek and the Raiders organization handle this situation could influence their competitiveness in the coming seasons. Making an upgrade at kicker may reinforce the team’s overall stability, but delaying decisions might prolong issues at a crucial role.
