As the 2025-26 NHL season approaches its final stages with the playoffs in clear sight, attention turns to Boston Bruins forward Morgan Geekie. Over the past two seasons, Geekie has exceeded expectations, tallying 67 goals in 138 games as a key top-six player for the Bruins after an earlier career spent struggling to find consistent roles with the Carolina Hurricanes and Seattle Kraken. This marked turnaround highlights the potential for what analysts now call the Morgan Geekie Bruins regression.
Geekie initially averaged only 9 minutes and 23 seconds per game with the Kraken and was considered a role player before signing with Boston in the 2023 offseason. This move has been transformative for him, boosting his production and earning him a lucrative new contract of $5.5 million average annual value over six years, signed in June 2025. The deal also includes a no-trade clause starting next season, signaling the Bruins’ commitment to keeping him through 2031 unless a future trade occurs.
Indicators of Possible Regression in Morgan Geekie’s Performance
Despite Geekie’s impressive offensive output, some caution is warranted regarding the sustainability of his goal-scoring pace. His shooting percentages have notably increased to 22% in 2024-25 and 24.1% so far in 2025-26, numbers that suggest an unusually high level of efficiency. Although he has maintained a solid shot volume at 2.3 shots per game playing alongside skilled linemates, his current deployment on the third line with about 17:43 of ice time per game raises the possibility that a scoring decline might be approaching.
A 2016 Sports Illustrated analysis sheds light on this phenomenon by explaining that a player’s shooting percentage does not simply revert to a career average but follows an age-related curve. The article states,
“As it turns out, analysts who assume a player’s shooting percentage will always revert to his career average are missing a very important detail, namely that a player’s shooting percentage follows its own age curve.
Younger players tend to have lower shooting percentages that improve as they gain pro experience. Conversely, as players start to decline overall, one of the things that also goes is their shooting ability.”
This insight suggests that as Geekie, now 27, continues to age, his shooting efficiency may naturally decrease, a pattern seen with many NHL scorers.
Contextualizing Geekie’s Trajectory Through NHL Comparisons
Morgan Geekie’s evolution into a dependable scorer with Boston reflects management’s faith, particularly Don Sweeney’s decision to secure him as a low-cost unrestricted free agent in July 2023 for just $2 million AAV. Since then, Geekie’s role has expanded from a bottom-six player to a reliable 30-plus goal scorer, underscoring his development.
However, similar cases in the NHL hint at looming regression. For example, New York Rangers forward Chris Kreider experienced three consecutive seasons with 30-plus goals, followed by a noticeable downturn in goal totals over the past two years while playing for both the Rangers and now the Anaheim Ducks. This trajectory aligns with the expected age curve for scoring efficiency highlighted earlier.
Current Season Performance and Areas for Improvement
In the ongoing 2025-26 season, Geekie has registered 34 goals and 23 assists for a total of 57 points, although his plus-minus rating stands at minus-7. Despite his scoring success, aspects of his defensive game and puck management warrant attention. Geekie has turned over the puck 54 times this season, surpassing last year’s total by three giveaways. This has contributed to a lowered Corsi-for percentage of 49.3, indicating challenges in puck possession when he is on the ice.
With 394 NHL games played across stints with the Carolina Hurricanes, Seattle Kraken, and now the Boston Bruins, Geekie’s career totals include 106 goals and 109 assists, amounting to 215 points. While this veteran status confirms his value, the looming possibility of regression demands that Geekie focus on refining his backcheck efforts and puck control to sustain his contributions at a high level.
The Significance of Monitoring Morgan Geekie’s Future Performance
Morgan Geekie’s transformation into a key Bruins offensive asset has been remarkable but may face a natural decline as suggested by shooting percentage trends and player aging patterns. Bruins fans and management should balance optimism with realism as his scoring rate may dip in the near future, a common trajectory among previously high-efficiency snipers in the NHL.
Understanding this potential regression is essential for strategic planning, particularly with the playoffs imminent and long-term roster considerations ongoing. How Geekie adapts—especially by improving his defensive play and puck retention—could determine how long he remains an indispensable contributor to Boston’s success.
