Major League Baseball (MLB) is exploring the option of partnering with prediction market platforms as part of its evolving approach to sports-related wagering. At the conclusion of the league’s recent owners meetings, Commissioner Rob Manfred announced that MLB is seriously considering relationships with companies like Kalshi and Polymarket, which have gained attention after deals with leagues such as the NHL, MLS, and UFC. This potential collaboration signals a notable development in MLB’s position on prediction markets.
Distinguishing Prediction Markets from Traditional Sports Betting
Rob Manfred emphasized the league’s interest in understanding why prediction markets differ from conventional sports betting. He noted that
“We thought it was important for the owners to be updated on why prediction markets are different than sports betting — why we might want to consider being in the business with prediction markets in an effort to protect our integrity, to get the kind of protections we need,”
according to ESPN’s Jeff Passan. Manfred further highlighted regulatory distinctions, explaining,
“The regulatory framework, very different. Obviously state by state on the sports betting side, federal on the other.”
These remarks reflect MLB’s focus on how prediction markets are governed differently at federal and state levels compared to traditional betting.
Previous MLB Warnings and Changing Attitudes
This approach represents a shift from earlier MLB warnings. An internal memo obtained by Front Office Sports in August 2025 instructed players to avoid engaging in prediction markets, stating that risking money on any baseball-related events would violate the league’s sports betting policy. The memo warned,
“Several companies (including Kalshi, Robinhood, and Crypto.com, among others) are now offering what they call ‘prediction markets,’ which allow members of the public to risk money on the outcome of specific events, including baseball and other sporting events.”
While player participation remains prohibited, the league now appears open to working publicly with these companies to safeguard the sport’s integrity.
Implications for Baseball and the Wider Sports Industry
This emerging openness to prediction markets comes amid baseball’s complicated relationship with sports wagering, especially in light of scandals from the previous season. A formal partnership between MLB and companies like Kalshi or Polymarket would provide these platforms with their most prominent exposure in mainstream sports. Moreover, MLB’s evolving stance may influence other major leagues, such as the NFL and NBA, potentially encouraging them to reconsider their policies on prediction markets as well. Such developments could redefine the role of prediction markets across professional sports in the United States.
