The 2026 NASCAR Cup Series season approaches with as much uncertainty and excitement as ever, with industry experts forecasting a highly competitive and unpredictable year on the track. As teams and drivers prepare for the upcoming races, insights from FOX Sports motorsports analysts reveal varying opinions on which competitors will shine, struggle, or claim victory this season.
Teams Facing the Greatest Challenges in 2026
Among the teams under pressure heading into the new season, Richard Childress Racing (RCR) stands out. Bob Pockrass points to this team’s internal uncertainties and recent struggles as major obstacles they need to overcome.
You talk about Kyle Busch being a free agent and can you get the track right there with a new crew chief and get him feeling like this can be a place where he wants to keep racing at,
Pockrass explained.
Where is Austin Dillon in his career? He obviously wants to run better as well. You’ve got a couple of young guys there who want to go Cup racing. Where are they looking for their futures? To me, RCR, they’ve gone through another round of competition changes, which seems like they’ve had a lot over the last two or three years. To me, they’re probably under the most pressure.
Last season’s results highlight these concerns, with Dillon and Busch finishing 15th and 21st respectively in the standings, both outside the top 12.
Kevin Harvick identifies 23XI Racing as another team that must elevate their performance, focusing particularly on Tyler Reddick. Despite a promising trajectory, Reddick’s 2025 season ended without a victory, a step back from his three wins in 2024.
We gave them a mulligan last year,
Harvick remarked.
The bottom line is, Bubba [Wallace] got to victory lane, and we saw improvement from that car last year. Tyler Reddick has to win. I think he’s expected and went there to win races and been there long enough to win races. I think the scrutiny of that organization if they don’t, there’s no gimme this year.
Bubba’s been there long enough now that it’s time to start creeping into that multiple wins [per season]. Riley will hopefully run better after his first year in Cup. But the big Tyler Reddick scenario to me is you’re expecting multiple race wins out of that car and that company and, in my opinion, Michael Jordan and Denny Hamlin expect them to go out and contend for a championship.
Mamba Smith points to RFK Racing and the 22 Group as squads that need to demonstrate top-tier competitiveness to meet expectations.
RFK needs to show they can be a top team again,
Smith said.
Obviously, what we just saw with Ryan Preece, that was great. He’s their top guy. He’s consistently their fastest guy. If I would say who is the most motivated, the 22 Group is the most motivated because of maybe how much people on social media talk about their championships.
Watch the 22 Group show you what they can do in a different format. Watch them come out and be a top team as far as average, because it’s different.
Despite this motivation, none of the RFK drivers recorded a win in 2025, and all finished outside the top 15 in the standings.
Potential Breakthrough Drivers to Watch
Among drivers likely to make significant strides in 2026, Bob Pockrass highlights Chris Buescher’s prospects. If RFK Racing improves as a whole, Buescher’s chances of breaking into the playoff chase appear strong.
When we talk to other drivers about, ‘Who do you think is gonna make the chase this year who didn’t make it last year?,’ a third of them didn’t even think twice before they said Chris Buescher. If RFK is stronger as a group, he’s going to be really strong,
Pockrass noted.
Although Buescher’s recent form has dipped from his seventh-place finish in 2023, he still secured five top-five finishes in 2025.
Kevin Harvick focuses on Ty Gibbs as a breakout candidate, citing his raw speed and potential to reach victory lane this season.
Just because he’s been so fast. He’s got the speed in the race car to keep himself in contention, can race well, and it’s just about getting over that hump to get to victory lane,
Harvick said.
I think they have the capability, the stability within the team now that they think they can have a breakout year.
Gibbs, 23 years old, has showed consistent performance with Joe Gibbs Racing, finishing in the top 20 of points standings in all his three Cup seasons and earning five top-five finishes in 2025.
Mamba Smith believes Chase Elliott is positioned to regain contender status despite recent challenges.
I’m just thinking that they started figuring it out with the car,
Smith explained.
That was just the biggest thing. He wasn’t very comfortable driving this car. Now, they figured it out. They went through all their gremlins. And their system is more to their liking. They probably feel like, ‘It’s back in our wheelhouse. They’re probably going to have a good year.
Elliott concluded last season ranked eighth in the standings after securing two wins.
Predictions for Most Victories in the Season
Bob Pockrass projects Kyle Larson to maintain his strong form for the 2026 season following his second Cup Series triumph in 2025.
I don’t see any reason why they’re going to get any worse,
Pockrass stated confidently.
Kevin Harvick believes Denny Hamlin’s motivation fueled by personal challenges and near misses could translate into a successful campaign.
I could definitely make the argument for Larson, but there’s still a lot of motivation for Denny Hamlin,
Harvick said.
I just know he’s talked about his shoulder being hurt, being through so many things with his family, losing the championship and his dad’s passing and everything. I still believe there’s some fire in there to motivate him and as a driver, every year you’re looking for something to motivate you when you’ve done it that long. I hope that plays out, because I think he deserves it. I think sentiment for Denny Hamlin this year is going to be different. It started to shift last year. I believe that fan sentiment is going to be pretty positive this year as he rolls into the race track.
Smith, meanwhile, chooses Christopher Bell to lead in wins, pointing to his drive and nearly flawless skill set despite midseason obstacles in 2025.
I almost went with his other teammate, Chase Briscoe, but Christopher Bell is highly, highly motivated to win a championship,
Smith said.
That group is so fast. There’s really not any holes in his game. So, I think there’s a very good chance he ends the year with the most wins.
Top Contenders for the 2026 Cup Series Championship
Bob Pockrass selects Ryan Blaney as his pick for the 2026 Cup champion, with Blaney maintaining consistent high-level finishes, including a sixth-place follow-up to his 2023 title and 2024’s runner-up result.
Kevin Harvick has faith that William Byron is ready to advance beyond previous near-misses thanks to his growing maturity and strong partnership with crew chief Rudy Fugle.
It’s just that maturity and the things that go with a team. I think he and Rudy have a great relationship,
Harvick said.
They have worked through a lot of hard moments together, and that’s what it takes to be the champ.
Mamba Smith believes Christopher Bell’s motivation and continued improvement set him up as a championship favorite.
Last year, I went with William Byron, and I still feel like the fire is there. But this year, I’m going with Christopher Bell. There’s something about it with him, and I think it’s his time.
The 2026 NASCAR Cup Series appears primed for an intense and pressure-filled season, with established veterans and emerging talents poised to battle fiercely for wins and the coveted championship. As the Daytona 500 looms, every team and driver faces high stakes, making this a season where breakthroughs and surprises are likely to redefine the competitive landscape.
