The 2025 NFL MVP award stirred considerable controversy when it was revealed that Matthew Stafford narrowly edged out Drake Maye by just a single first-place vote. This lone deciding ballot was cast for Justin Herbert, an unexpected choice given that Maye and Stafford were widely seen as the primary contenders. Stafford secured 24 first-place votes, with Maye following closely at 23, while Herbert was not initially considered among the frontrunners.
Questions quickly arose about the identity of the voter who chose Herbert. The mystery was soon cleared up when Sam Monson, a former Pro Football Focus employee, current contributor for The 33rd Team, and co-host of the Check the Mic podcast with Steve Palazzolo, publicly defended his decision. Monson justified his vote by emphasizing Herbert’s instrumental role as the Los Angeles Chargers’ most valuable player, asserting that without him, the team would not have reached the playoffs.
Assessing Herbert’s Value Amid Challenging Conditions
Monson argued that despite Herbert’s statistics not matching the flashiness of Stafford or Maye, the Chargers’ offensive line struggles significantly impacted his performance. With the worst pass blocking percentage in the NFL at 54%, largely due to injuries to key linemen Joe Alt and Rashawn Slater, Herbert faced far more pressure than many of his MVP rivals.
The Chargers concluded the regular season second in the AFC West, behind the Denver Broncos, but were decisively defeated in the wild-card playoff round by the New England Patriots. In that game, Herbert was limited to 159 passing yards with zero touchdowns while enduring six sacks and multiple turnovers, with the team scoring only three points total.
MVP is the single hardest award to ‘correctly’ determine, because the focus is on ‘value’, which is basically impossible to objectively evaluate with so many dependencies.But the idea that one vote altered a guy’s legacy is stupid. More people than not thought each candidate…— Sam Monson (@SamMonsonNFL) February 6, 2026
Tom Brady’s Endorsement of Herbert’s Potential Amid Offensive Line Woes
Despite criticisms from rival fans, Herbert’s talent is widely acknowledged. However, his playoff performances have often highlighted the gap between promise and execution. Tom Brady, the seven-time Super Bowl winner, has praised Herbert’s exceptional arm strength and potential to rival elite quarterbacks like Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, and Joe Burrow — provided his supporting cast improves, especially the offensive line.
If they protect Justin Herbert, he’s the best passer in the league. Get him help with quick plays and screens, and support him with the run game to avoid unnecessary hits. Tom Brady said on The Herd
Brady’s point is clear: shielding Herbert from excessive pressure and providing offensive balance are crucial for maximizing his effectiveness and prolonging his career.
Highlight Play Demonstrating Herbert’s Skill Under Pressure
Herbert’s talent was showcased in a regular-season game at SoFi Stadium against the Denver Broncos when he completed an extremely difficult 20-yard touchdown pass to veteran wide receiver Keenan Allen. According to Next Gen Stats, the completion had only a 16.7% chance of success, underscoring Herbert’s capability to make impressive plays even with minimal separation and at high speed.
Justin Herbert’s 20-yard touchdown pass to Keenan Allen had a completion probability of 16.7%, Herbert’s most improbable completion since Week 8, 2024.🔹 Herbert’s Speed: 12.85 mph🔹 Allen’s Separation: 0.6 yards#DENvsLAC | #BoltUppic.twitter.com/3VZs68HFoY— Next Gen Stats (@NextGenStats) September 21, 2025
Coaching Changes and the Road Ahead for Herbert’s Development
Since Jim Harbaugh became the Chargers head coach two years ago, Herbert’s performance has steadily improved. The recent addition of Mike McDaniel as offensive coordinator is expected to further enhance the team’s offensive strategies. Nevertheless, the crux of Herbert’s future success hinges on strengthening the offensive line. Without adequate protection, even a quarterback of Herbert’s caliber will struggle to maintain consistent production and avoid injury.
The Significance of Monson’s Vote and What It Means for Herbert
Sam Monson’s decision to cast an MVP vote for Herbert highlights the complexities in evaluating “value” in football, especially when external factors like team support and protection vary widely. While Herbert did not win the MVP, the vote shines a spotlight on his pivotal role within the Chargers’ relatively high-performing season despite significant challenges.
This episode may influence future discussions around MVP voting criteria, potentially encouraging voters to consider contextual elements beyond pure statistics. For Herbert and the Chargers, addressing the weaknesses in their offensive line will be the next crucial step towards translating individual talent into deeper playoff success and broader recognition.
MVP is the single hardest award to 'correctly' determine, because the focus is on 'value', which is basically impossible to objectively evaluate with so many dependencies.
But the idea that one vote altered a guy's legacy is stupid.
More people than not thought each candidate…
— Sam Monson (@SamMonsonNFL) February 6, 2026
Tom Brady on FOX:
“If they protect Justin Herbert, he’s the best passer in the league."
Brady knows ball. 🐐 pic.twitter.com/O22egRLHXK
— ًBoltUpYo (@BoltUpYo) October 5, 2025
Justin Herbert's 20-yard touchdown pass to Keenan Allen had a completion probability of 16.7%, Herbert's most improbable completion since Week 8, 2024.
🔹 Herbert's Speed: 12.85 mph
🔹 Allen's Separation: 0.6 yards#DENvsLAC | #BoltUppic.twitter.com/3VZs68HFoY— Next Gen Stats (@NextGenStats) September 21, 2025
